Concern is growing among Ukrainian leaders in the face of a new Russian offensive, and especially in the face of the rise of the invader’s arms industry. “Russia should not be underestimated. She suffered heavy losses and expended a lot of ammunition. But it will maintain superiority in weapons, equipment, missiles and ammunition for a long time, writes Valery Zalouzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, in an article published 1er November in the British weekly The Economist. Its defense industry is increasing production, despite unprecedented sanctions. »
The general, whose popularity in Ukraine rivals or even exceeds that of President Volodymyr Zelensky, paints an alarming picture of the military outlook. According to him, the conflict with Russia has entered into a “new phase”that of a long attrition, with few maneuvers, but on the contrary armies entrenched in static positions. “Currently, the conflict is gradually evolving towards a war of positions, of which [l’histoire nous a appris] that it is always difficult to leave, both for armed forces and for a State”, writes Mr. Zalouzhny. And this mutation, he adds, “plays in favor of Russia, which can thus reconstitute its military power”.
The senior Ukrainian officer sees a way out in the technological advantage that deliveries of Western weapons could give him, of which he makes a detailed list. “A war of positions is a long war carrying enormous risks for the Ukrainian armed forces and the state. New and innovative approaches can [permettre de revenir] from a war of positions to a war of maneuvers »he believes.
Lurking ammo
But the Russian army also demonstrates a solid capacity for adaptation and innovation, underlines the soldier, who cites in particular the Lancet lurking munitions, the Orlan and Zala drones, “very difficult to counter”. It reveals that Russian forces found a solution to the American Excalibur guided shells thanks to very advanced electronic warfare and jamming systems. No less worrying for Ukraine is General Zaluzhny’s admission of “holes in the legislation allowing evasion of mobilization” Who “reduce the motivation of citizens to serve in the army”facing human resources “almost three times higher” Russian side.
On the material side, the Kremlin is in fact working hard by increasing its military budget by 68% in 2024. The defense industry is quickly stepping up to supply the front. An investigation by Ukrainian media Skhemy carried out from satellite observations, shows the construction or expansion, in recent months, of several key factories in the Russian military-industrial system.
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