As the campaign for the legislative elections begins its home stretch with a first appointment to the polls on June 30, Jordan Bardella’s party continues to lead the race in the polls. The RN and its right-wing allies of Éric Ciotti dominate the voting intentions for the first round (35.5 to 36%), followed by the New Popular Front (27 to 29.5%), the camp of Emmanuel Macron being left behind (19.5 to 20%), according to two surveys published on Saturday.
Participation is expected to rise sharply compared to 2022 when it stood at 47.8%, with between 60 to 64% of French people saying they intend to go to the polls, the Elabe survey indicates. For The gallery and that of Ipsos for The Parisian and Radio France.
In these two polls, Les Républicains, who did not join the alliance between their president Éric Ciotti and the RN, came in fourth position with 7% voting intentions (Ipsos) and 10% for Elabe who added up the votes. UDI and various right.
No absolute majority in sight
Based on these results, the Elabe institute estimates that the RN and its allies would have a relative majority in the National Assembly. According to the Ipsos survey, which does not make a projection in seats, RN voters are the most sure of their choice, only 13% of them believing that their vote can still change, compared to 19% for the left, 29% for the majority and 48% for LR.
The Ipsos poll was carried out online from June 19 to 20, 2024 on a representative sample of 2,000 people registered on the electoral lists. The margins of error are between 0.7 and 2.6 points. That of Elabe was carried out from the 19th to the 21st on a sample of 2,002 people including 1,870 registered on the electoral lists. The margins of error are between 1.1 and 2.6 points.