Legislative elections in France, with the two-round majority voting system, are often binary. But since 2017, it’s been more complicated and in 2022, with three large families around or above 20% in the first round, the cards are now blurred. In this tense between-two-rounds, what do we know of the intentions of the voters but also of the abstainers for the second round? 20 minutes asked the question to Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos.
As often during the first few rounds, the parties announce that they want to convince the abstainers in the between-two rounds. But is this type of remobilization rare?
It’s rare, but it’s not totally impossible. Generally, there is rather an increase in abstention between the two rounds of a legislative election. Quite simply because some of the voters of the eliminated candidates are not satisfied with the offer of the second round and take refuge in abstention. But, in recent decades, there have been two cases in which, on the contrary, there has been an increase in participation between the two rounds: that is 1997 and 1988.
This is very interesting because these are the only two elections for which there was some uncertainty about the final result. We can perhaps be in this kind of configuration in 2022 and have the same phenomenon. Afterwards, it is not certain that this possible gain in participation participates in a particular camp. And then, unlike these two previous cases, I still have the feeling that the media tone is rather Together! seems certain to have a majority. The question is whether it will be an absolute or relative majority. It’s not the same as not knowing at all which side will win.
Even if the Nupes and Together! finished more or less tied on Sunday, it is Ensemble which is clearly ahead in seats in the projections because it is expected that the LR electorate will turn to the Macronist candidates. In what proportions?
It’s quite difficult to say. Today, we have a little more than one in two who would vote for the Macronist candidates but with a lot of loss, especially towards abstention. Obviously, the campaign between the two rounds can make that change. This is the big question: will this electorate think that, ultimately, there is still a risk of a majority of Nupes and in this case, vote for the candidates Together!. Or will they tell themselves that the risk is relatively remote and therefore there will be a relative demobilization? The other point is still that this electorate, from now on, it is very concentrated in its strongholds. And that these strongholds, well these are places where there are LRs in the second round. These are therefore not as large reserves as they appear on paper. LR and its allies do, of course, a little more than 13% but in most of the constituencies where they are eliminated from the second round, they do much less of that.
Voters of the far right and in particular of the RN have never been so numerous in the legislative elections. Do we have any idea of their behavior during the second round, when they have no candidate?
It should be a very predominantly abstentionist behavior and then, at this stage, it can change by Sunday, a roughly equal distribution between Nupes and Ensemble! when it is this configuration in the second round. Knowing that it can depend on the type of territory. That is to say that in the few constituencies in the south of France where the RN is not in the second round, the report will undoubtedly be much more towards the candidates Together! because it is an electorate that is more ideologically far right. While in the constituencies rather in the North, North-East they will rather go to Nupes because it is a more anti-system electorate.
We talk a lot about the constituencies where RN and Nupes face each other, what do we know in this case about the macronist reports?
We are still working on this, there are no very precise figures but what should be remembered is that Macronist voters would tend to abstain massively. And the small third who votes chooses the Nupes a little more than the RN. This is not so surprising when we know that the share of former voters of François Fillon among Macronist voters has increased further.