The mutiny initiated on Saturday by the Wagner group raises many questions about the stability of the Russian regime and the continuation of the war in Ukraine.
The Wagner group finally backtracked. For 24 hours, Yevgeni Prigojine’s epic challenged the authority of Vladimir Putin head-on, launching his troops towards Moscow and promising to “liberate the russian people”. But at the end of the day, Saturday June 23, the boss of the paramilitary group turned around and asked his troops to leave their positions in several Russian cities. As brief as it was spectacular, this rebellion, which could be interpreted as a pressure on the Kremlin and the military command, risks leaving deep scars in Russia.
What was Prigozhin’s goal?
One of the most shared hypotheses remains that the former “cook” of Vladimir Putin sought to overthrow the main leaders of the Russian army, in particular the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of Staff, Valéri Gerassimov. For months, Yevgeni Prigojine has been attacking the high command of the Russian army through videos, often to demand more ammunition, sometimes accusing the general staff of incompetence in the conduct of the war. The quarrel has also risen a notch recently, because of the request made by the army to the battalions of the Wagner group to sign a “contract” with the Ministry of Defense by July 1.
This situation could be another explanation for the initiative taken by Prigozhin. “Like any mercenary when he is no longer paid (…) he claims to be paid and deserts if he is not paid”analyze the geopolitical consultant Francois Chauvancy on franceinfo. The leader of the paramilitary group would therefore have “its communication campaign” by putting a “media pressure” on Vladimir Putin.
The goal of Prigojine was not to start a civil war, confirms on franceinfo Peer de Jong, another specialist in geopolitics. “The goal is for things to go well, for the doors to open and for him to go directly where he needs to go”analyzed this specialist on Saturday before the rebel’s volte-face.
The epic of Yevgeny Prigojine could also have been launched in reaction to the strikes supposedly carried out, according to the boss of Wagner, by the Russian army on the positions of his troops. If these attacks are proven, it means that “Moscow wanted to put Prigojine out of harm’s way”explains François Chauvancy again in Le Figaro. If, on the contrary, these strikes never took place, it may be a pretext of the boss of Wagner “to spark an insurrection aimed at thwarting an upcoming ‘Night of the Long Knives’, in which he would have been eliminated”considers General Chauvancy.
Why did Prigozhin finally turn around?
“Guarantees have been given to Prigojine” so that he turns around, estimates François Chauvancy on franceinfo. “We had to make important financial promises to Prigojine saying that he will be well employed, perhaps better considered”, continues the specialist. Furthermore, Wagner’s leader could not “not allow himself a bloodbath, because he presents himself as a patriot”also believes Peer de Jong, former colonel of the marine troops. He “was in the best interests [de la Russie] to avoid a bloodbath”, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov on Saturday evening.
None of the fighters from the Wagner Group, which plays an important role alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, will be prosecuted for the coup, according to the Kremlin. “No one will persecute [les combattants], given their merits at the front” Ukrainian, assured Dmitri Peskov. The proceedings will also be dropped against Evguéni Prigojine, who has taken over the management of Belarus.
“We ignore the content” of this agreement, nuance on franceinfo Françoise Daucé, director of the Center for Russian World Studies. “ISince decision-making is extremely opaque, we don’t know what will happen behind it”she believes, despite the desire for appeasement displayed since Saturday evening by Moscow.
If the terms of the agreement with Wagner remain subject to speculation, it seems that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, has played a key role. According to his services, it was he who proposed to the head of Wagner to stop his progress towards the Russian capital. “We are grateful to the President of Belarus for these efforts”greeted the Kremlin spokesman. “I have doubts about his real role and maybe he was used by Putin instead”however, believes on franceinfo Olga Prokopieva, spokesperson for Russia-Freedoms, a human rights NGO. “If Putin had negotiated directly with Prigozhin, he would have lost face a bit. He needed to fake it with ‘mediation’.”
What will become of Wagner after this coup de force?
“It’s a facade outcome in the immediate future, to calm the situation but we can think that we will not stop there because there was a form of humiliation of Vladimir Putin and the high command. of the Army”comments Françoise Daucé.
The researcher does not really imagine that mutineers can be reintegrated into the “regular ranks of the Russian army”. “Putin and the security services will probably try to weaken Wagner or remove Prigozhin“, tweeted for his part Rob Lee, researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in the United States. According to him, “the greatest effects will be felt in the Middle East and Africa, where Wagner has a strong presence”. For François Chauvancy, it is on the contrary not sure that Prigojine will be sanctioned for this rebellion. “Perhaps he will even recover his seat in Saint Petersburg to continue to carry out campaigns of influence, in particular against France”he believes.
What consequences for Vladimir Putin and Russian power?
“The only certain conclusion is that the Putin regime is weak, that the criminals are devouring each other”believes Olga Prokopieva, spokesperson for Russia-Freedoms. “There are only losers” in this abortive rebellion, also observes on franceinfo Sylvie Bermann, former ambassador of France in Russia between 2017 and 2019. For her, not only “Evgeny Prigojine comes out the loser”but also Russia, offering “the image of a country that is not doing well”. The former ambassador considers that “Vladimir Putin is a loser” also in this case. The diplomat recalls that “stability was the watchword and the main asset” of the Russian President, who “on the eve of the intervention in Ukraine had full powers in Russia and was respected around the world as a strong power”.
“We have the feeling of a weakening, even if Putin’s power has never really been questioned.”
Sylvie Bermann, former French Ambassador to Russiaon franceinfo
“Wagner’s rebellion shatters the myth of the unity of the whole of Russia behind its president”, adds Françoise Daucé. She considers that this rebellion “has stolen the idea of a sacred union behind the president by bringing to light the divisions within the power itself”.
“The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium… The Prigozhin rebellion revealed serious weaknesses”, also highlights an analysis by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War. On the side of kyiv, we also press on the flaws revealed by this mutiny. Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, considers that “Prigozhin humiliated Putin and shown that there is no longer a monopoly on violence”.
The Russian power will therefore have to react and make Prigojine suffer the consequences of its actions, believes analyst Samuel Bendett. “Otherwise the message is that a military force can openly challenge the state, and others must understand that the Russian state effectively has a monopoly on violence inside the country“tweeted this researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses.
Can this episode influence the conflict in Ukraine?
Wagner’s failed rebellion will only affect “never” Russian forces in Ukraine, the Kremlin quickly proclaimed on Saturday evening. The impact on the morale of the troops at the front is however more questionable than ever. Former Ambassador Sylvie Bermann confirms that the war in Ukraine “is not questioned”but the rebellion, even temporary, of the Wagner militia can still represent a kind “of victory for the Ukrainians who have strengthened their offensive”. During his televised speech on Saturday, Vladimir Putin “assured that it would change nothing in his resolve to wage a war”, but it does not come out less “psychologically impaired”.
The Ukrainian army also launched offensives on Saturday evening against Russian forces on the eastern front and claimed “progress in all directions”, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. However, it is difficult to say whether Wagner’s rebellion can have a direct consequence on the Russian forces present on the front line. “Wagner is designed for assaults, not for defensive operations“, recalls researcher Rob Lee on Twitter. “Their role during Ukraine’s counter-offensive has never been clear.”