The new race to the Moon is delayed. After the failure of Peregrine, the lunar lander which was to mark the return of an American spacecraft to the Moon, it is the turn of the next two Artemis missions to be delayed, as NASA announced on Tuesday. Initially scheduled for the end of 2025, Artemis 3, which will mark the return of humans to our natural satellite for the first time since the last Apollo mission in 1972, has been postponed until September 2026. Artemis 2, consisting of sending a crew into orbit around of the Moon in order to prepare Artemis 3, will not take place this year as planned but in September 2025, according to NASA.
If delays are legion in the space field, for Francis Rocard, responsible for solar system exploration programs at Cnes (National Center for Space Studies), we must distinguish between the Artemis 2 and 3 missions. According to him, the postponement of Artemis 3 “is not surprising”. Evoking 2025 as a “date more political than anything else”, the trained astrophysicist points out the delay taken by the company SpaceX, on which the next two lunar missions are largely based. Elon Musk’s company was chosen by NASA to develop the lander for the Artemis missions, which will be a derivative of its Starship spacecraft. “Today, SpaceX’s concern is not yet the recovery of the first stage, it is first of all to make its Starship fly, and that has not yet worked,” explains the expert. The Starship’s second test flight, which can be described as a “successful failure” because many objectives were achieved, ended with the destruction of both stages.
Priority on safety
And even if success is expected in the Starship’s next test flight, “we are very far from the end of the story”, according to Francis Rocard. SpaceX must still learn to master the landing of the first stage and the launch rate that the lunar missions will impose, the ship carrying the astronauts to the Moon having to be refueled directly in space by several cargo ships. “It takes between six, eight, ten [voire plus] Starship for a mission to the Moon, each time with a landing on the launch pad, a rapid filling with propellant, a new second stage and we leave again, explains Francis Rocard. That’s one shot every two weeks, it’s crazy. » Another challenge will be to control propellant refueling in orbit, which has never been done.
As for Artemis 2, its postponement is more surprising for our expert because it is the manned version of Artemis 1, successfully launched on November 16, 2022. However, it seems understandable: “With the small anomalies detected on Artemis 1, particularly on the heat shield, NASA prioritizes safety and does not want to take any risks as long as there are men on board. » Especially since there is no longer any urgency: “From the moment Artemis 3 is postponed, there is no point in launching Artemis 2 at all costs. » It is also the argument put forward by NASA itself Tuesday, which justified its decision to postpone the lunar missions by questions of “crew safety”.
Starship, the determining factor
For the moment, it is impossible to know whether the new deadlines announced by NASA will be met. “Everything depends on what happens on the Starship,” explains Francis Rocard. NASA is taking a short-term view with SpaceX, so there is a lot of uncertainty on the schedule. NASA does not want to express it like that, it also mentions problems with spacesuits to justify the postponement, but SpaceX is its weak link. » The GAO, the American Court of Auditors, is therefore aiming for a launch at the beginning of 2027 for Artemis 3.
Could this extension of the timetable for the Artemis missions put NASA in direct competition with China, which aims to send men to the Moon by 2030? “In Congress, NASA is putting forward the argument that if we don’t move forward quickly, we will be overtaken by the Chinese,” notes the person responsible for solar system exploration programs. But the American space agency should still be the first to set foot on the Moon. “China is moving quickly, with astonishing reliability, but we still have a little margin,” reassures Francis Rocard. We still have to move forward quickly. »
SpaceX’s difficulties could, however, benefit Jeff Bezos and his company Blue Origin, direct competitors of Elon Musk. “The more Artemis 3 and SpaceX move back, the more Blue Origin, which is in the process of manufacturing its own moon landing system, is in the race,” believes our expert. If the Artemis 3 and 4 missions were awarded to SpaceX and Artemis 5 and 6 to Blue Origin, “the question of replacing SpaceX by Blue Origin could arise if Elon Musk’s company falls too far behind. It’s not for now, but the question could arise,” concludes Francis Rocard. The countdown to the Moon is on.