Will the Mediterranean basin be affected by the heatwave between May and July 2024? This is what the climatic trends for the next three months published this Monday by Météo-France seem to indicate, reports The Parisian.
In this bulletin, the official meteorology and climatology service in France estimates a 70% probability that a scenario of temperatures higher than seasonal norms will occur over the next three months in the Mediterranean area. A greater differential than in the rest of the territory.
A risk of heatwave
Across France as a whole, the organization estimated the risk of a scenario of temperatures hotter than normal between May and July at 50%. Conversely, the possibility of a colder scenario was assessed at 20% at the national level compared to 10% for the Mediterranean basin.
“It’s very crude, since we’re talking on a scale of months, so we’re not completely certain,” meteorologist Guillaume Sechet insisted. According to his information, the scenarios planned at European and American level nevertheless confirm these prospects for heat in France, and in particular in the south-east of the territory “with a risk of heatwaves or severe heat waves”.
A feeling of déjà vu
For climatologist Davide Faranda, the probability of a scenario of temperatures higher than seasonal norms on the Mediterranean coast is not surprising. According to him, it could be explained by the increase in temperatures in the Mediterranean. “This spring, the sea is 1 and 2 degrees warmer on average compared to normal,” he recalled.
The same phenomenon was predicted and finally occurred last year with a heatwave in the South-East. In addition to temperatures, however, there are still many uncertainties regarding future precipitation, which is more difficult to predict.
“According to the European model scenario, the summer would be a little drier than normal over a large southern half. But the American weather model indicates almost the opposite,” underlined Guillaume Sechet. In the meantime, Météo-France has chosen not to favor any scenario.