Before the return of contracts, that of forecasts. The Dubai Motor Show, from November 14 to 18, is an opportunity for Airbus to publish its new market forecasts for the next twenty years (Global Market Forecast 2021-2040). And the least we can say is that nothing has changed despite an unprecedented crisis since March 2020, if not a two-year lag in the forecasts of the European manufacturer. The latter estimates that the airlines will take delivery of 39,000 new planes with more than 100 seats, not in 2038 as he expected in 2019, but in 2040. Almost 2,000 new planes per year on average. And this, while Airbus has yet revised its growth forecasts for passenger traffic.
The distribution between the different market segments changes marginally. Airbus is still anticipating a need for 29,700 single-aisle flights for short and medium-haul flights on which it is positioning its A220 and A320 NEO, 5,300 medium-capacity long-haul aircraft with the A321XLR and A330 NEO, and finally 4,000 wide-body aircraft with the A350. Only the share of this last segment tends to decrease relatively significantly with 120 less aircraft planned compared to 2019.
The share of replacement is increasing
The most significant change is in the share of these new aircraft that will be devoted to the replacement of old aircraft. In 2019, Airbus estimated that this would represent just over 14,000 aircraft over twenty years. With the need of airlines to speed up the renewal of their fleets for ecological and of course economic considerations, the manufacturer estimates that 15,250 old-generation aircraft will be replaced in the next twenty years. If these projections are confirmed, it is therefore two-thirds of the current fleet that should be out of service by 2040.
“As economies and air travel mature, we find that demand is increasingly geared towards replacement rather than growth. Replacement is the most important driver of decarbonisation today, ”says Christian Scherer, Airbus Commercial Director.
Growth in passenger traffic slows, cargo speeds up
To arrive at these conclusions, Airbus based itself on a traffic assumption revised downwards compared to what it hoped for in 2019. The manufacturer is now betting on average annual growth of 3.9%, against 4.3 % before the crisis. This growth will be driven by the massive growth of the middle class in developing countries.
Conversely, Airbus forecasts an acceleration in the average growth of cargo traffic in accordance with the words of its executive chairman Guillaume Faury. In the third quarter results, he indicated that the air cargo market continued to remain well above pre-crisis levels. The manufacturer’s projections thus go from an average increase of 3.6% per year before the crisis, to 4% today. This growth should be mainly driven by express freight (+ 4.7% per year), even if it only represents a quarter of the market compared to general cargo (+ 2.7% per year).
However, according to Airbus, this will not translate into an acceleration in demand. He thus assesses the demand at 2,440 devices over twenty years, ie around sixty devices less than two years ago. A large majority of them will be conversions from passenger aircraft to cargo. Airbus still estimates that there will be a little more new planes (880) than what it previously expected (850).
For Bob Lange, vice-president of Airbus in charge of business analysis and market forecasts, believes that this is a simple adjustment and prefers to insist on the increase in the number of new planes. He also estimates that the demand for cargo aircraft (new and converted) will largely depend on the evolution of the hold capacity of the passenger fleet. These will vary depending on the mix between single-aisle and two-aisle aircraft in the middle segment, but also on the recovery in demand in the large aircraft segment.
To support this growth, which is still sustained despite two years of an unprecedented crisis, Airbus estimates that 550,000 new pilots and 710,000 qualified technicians will be needed over the next twenty years.