Surrounded by a defensive wall more than 500 kilometers long and protected by the Iron Dome, Israel seemed almost invulnerable to external attacks. But Israelis’ sense of security was suddenly shattered this weekend. The holy fortress was violently breached, Hamas fighters poured into Israeli territory from the sea, land and even the air. On the Israeli side, more than 700 people were killed, more than 2,000 injured and more than a hundred kidnapped, including many civilians.
Three days after the start of the Hamas offensive, the Israelis were plunged into a nightmare. And a question remains: how could Israel, renowned for having one of the best intelligence services in the world, have been surprised to this extent? Elements of response with Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam, director of the international and political relations program at the University of Tours, specialist in defense issues and Israeli politics.
Does this event mark a failure of the Israeli state?
When citizens are kidnapped and a border is completely violated, it is obviously a failure. Imagine this happening in France! The French population has already wondered how such a thing could have happened after the attacks of November 13. And yet, some attackers were French, our border had not been violated, and it was not a permanent threat. In Israel, the threat is constant, so an attack should not take authorities by surprise.
Exactly, how can we explain that the surprise was total?
It must be understood that it was both Shabbat and the Jewish holiday of Simcha Torah. People are not connected at these parties. It is therefore much more difficult to inform the population and, conversely, to inform emergency services when the phones are disconnected. This was obviously premeditated by Hamas. The date is all the more symbolic as it marked the fifty years of the Yom Kippur War. Almost everywhere in the world, terrorists rely on symbolic dates to attack. Normally, we take it into account when protecting a nation, a city, a neighborhood or even a building.
The attack will leave its mark on Israeli politics, everyone talks about it like 9/11”
Was Hamas particularly well prepared?
The Hamas attack was very organized. It will leave traces in Israeli politics, everyone talks about it like September 11 in the United States or November 13 in France. They broke down the walls with backhoe loaders, attacked by the sea but also by the air with ULM or paragliders, it’s surprising. To organize an attack of this magnitude, whether terrorist or not, you need at least a year of preparation. We don’t organize this overnight! With one of the best intelligence services in the world, Israel should have known.
Does Israeli intelligence still live up to its legend?
Israeli intelligence is, by necessity, very powerful. We remember, for example, Benyamin Netanyahu’s speech [prononcé fin septembre 2018] during which he presented photographs and unfolded lots of information on Iranian nuclear power. Israeli intelligence is very strong. But they are not infallible. And there was clearly a malfunction.
Why were the authorities so overwhelmed?
We must not speculate. At the moment, it is very difficult to identify the reasons for this failure. However, it is certain that the soldiers were mobilized more towards the West Bank than the Gaza Strip. This is very clearly a strategic error but it remains to be determined whether it is political or military. In addition to failures on the intelligence side, there were also malfunctions in alerts. The border, which is supposed to be one of the most secure in the world, was breached with backhoe loaders.
What might happen to the government?
For Benyamin Netanyahu’s coalition, it’s double or nothing. Either he manages to unify the country around a common response, or he will lose big. Soldiers and intelligence officers will be, at the very least, dismissed, or even brought to justice. For the moment, on Israeli news, it is anger that predominates. The population has the impression that nothing is being done to recover the hostages. You have to imagine what it’s like for the families of the kidnapped young people: during the holiday season, their children were kidnapped and they have no news from the government. It’s terrible. On the ground, there is a risk of conflict exploding. It is possible that the West Bank will burn, that Lebanon will get involved and that the United States will enter the war in turn. Unfortunately, we can imagine that this will evolve into something even more important.