In the first quarter, France’s GDP fell by 0.2%. INSEE expected a smaller increase under the effect of inflation.
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The French economy did better than expected in the second quarter: INSEE measured France’s GDP growth at 0.5%, while it was expecting 0.25%, according to data published on Friday July 29. In the first quarter, GDP contracted by 0.2%.
INSEE explains this result in particular by the fact that household consumption fell less than in the first quarter, despite inflation. It remains negative for purchases of goods (-1.3%), but purchases of services are on the rise again (+1.5%). Two contradictory trends leading to an overall decline of 0.2% in household consumption in the second quarter.
Growth is driven by the good results of foreign trade: imports fell 0.6% in the second quarter, while exports jumped 0.8%, the institute estimates.
Exports of goods are however down (-0.6%), but the French economy is notably driven by spending by foreign tourists (+8.6%) and transport services (+6.3%).
This first estimate of the national accounts will have to be confirmed at the end of August by INSEE. For the whole of 2022, INSEE forecasts growth of 2.5%. A figure in line with that anticipated by the government, and slightly higher than the expectations of the Banque de France or the IMF (+ 2.3%).