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An evaluation of the coal phase-out has been pending for over a year, although it is required by law. The federal government now wants to present them in the fall – and at the same time examine an exit by 2030. It remains highly controversial.
The federal government wants to present a report in autumn on whether an early exit from coal in 2030 is feasible – and how it should be implemented. This was announced by the Federal Ministry of Economics at the request of tagesschau.de with. The results are intended to be part of an initial evaluation of the ongoing phase-out, which was previously aimed at 2038.
An early phase-out of coal is “a logical step to make us less dependent on fossil fuels,” said a spokeswoman for the ministry. In addition, Germany’s climate protection goals are unlikely to be achieved without an early exit.
According to the coalition agreement, the traffic light coalition is aiming for an exit “ideally by 2030”. The federal government was able to agree on this cut with the state of North Rhine-Westphalia and the opencast mine and power plant operator RWE last October. For the two mining areas in eastern Germany, however, the gradual phase-out by 2038 still applies.
Greens last flexible at 2030
A position paper by the Greens in the Bundestag for an exit in 2030 caused a lot of resentment in the spring. Economics Minister Robert Habeck and other top Green politicians such as Federal Chairwoman Ricarda Lang have since avoided openly pushing for a specific year.
“The number 2030 is certainly a symbolic one,” said Saxon MP Bernhard Herrmann in an interview tagesschau.de. According to the Green politician, who is a member of the climate and energy committee, it is crucial for climate protection how much coal is mined and burned before the phase-out. Accordingly, an exit could even come earlier or “a little later” than 2030.
What has been the case so far with the coal phase-out?
The coal phase-out was decided in 2020 and is to be phased in gradually until 2038. This was preceded by the recommendations of the so-called Coal Commission and extensive negotiations between the federal government, the federal states and operators. The federal government is providing up to 41 billion euros for structural change in the coalfields. The law already stipulates that an exit can be completed as early as 2035 if things go well.
The energy industry is by far the largest producer of CO2 in Germany. As a result of the Ukraine war and the lack of Russian gas supplies, more coal was recently used to generate electricity.
According to Herrmann, his party says “what all experts know”: namely, that coal will become unprofitable well before 2038. After RWE and EnBW, the energy group Uniper recently announced that it would stop generating electricity from coal by 2029 for cost reasons.
However, leaving the exit to the market alone and not preparing yourself would be dangerous, says Herrmann. “Because then the exit will be decided by the LEAG owners in Prague – and not here.” LEAG mines coal in the Lusatian lignite mining area and converts it into electricity. Like MIBRAG in the central German area, it belongs to the Czech EPH group.
Politicians shouldn’t fool the local people, said Hermann. What is needed now, among other things, is a faster expansion of renewable energies and the electricity grid.
Are negotiations already underway in Lusatia?
The electricity producer LEAG, on the other hand, has recently invested heavily in renewables and storage capacities. Observers assume that the federal government, the affected states and the company have long been negotiating an exit analogous to the Rhenish Revier. When asked, the Ministry of Economic Affairs neither denied nor confirmed talks with LEAG about an early exit. It is only generally said that one is in continuous exchange with the entire energy industry – “also with LEAG” – and all federal states.
A company spokeswoman writes that LEAG assumes that “all parties involved” will adhere to the regulations that have been in force up to now. Talks are being held with the ministry about “the transformation of the company”, investment incentives for hydrogen and hydrogen-capable power plants, a new electricity market design and accelerated approval processes. There is also a need for clarification in mining planning, water management and social compatibility.
Only on Monday did representatives of the affected municipalities meet with Economics Minister Habeck. They called for faster planning, more funding for schools and better water management.
Eastern coallands critical
In the coal countries, the 2030 test by the federal government is triggering cautious reactions. According to a spokesman for the Brandenburg state government, one has been waiting for more than two years “for clear statements from Federal Minister Habeck” on the requirements for an earlier exit. In this respect, the current exit law continues to apply.
Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke said in March: “Maybe we can do it in 2032 or 2033.” A spokesman for the Brandenburg government cites permanently available, affordable energy, new industrial jobs in Lusatia and “taking the Lusatians with us” as the conditions for this.
Woidke’s Saxon colleague Michael Kretschmer has always rejected an exit in 2030 – as has Saxony-Anhalt’s Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff. According to the Magdeburg State Chancellery, a coal phase-out by 2030 will “not be possible”. Until then, security of supply and price stability could neither be guaranteed, nor could the conditions for new jobs and added value be created.
According to that “Lausitz Monitor”, a representative survey of two consulting agencies, the majority of people in Lusatia have so far rejected an exit by 2030. The interviewees were particularly critical of the region’s job market.
The latter is to be strengthened primarily through promotional measures. So far it is difficult to judge whether this works. A first Federal government interim report on structural change came to the conclusion in mid-August that it was still too early to make a final assessment of the impact of the measures. The feared loss of employment in the mining areas did not materialize. So far, the money has also flowed into sensible projects. However, only a few funds have been spent and the shortage of skilled workers is likely to cause problems in the rural, east German regions.
Federal government in arrears for more than a year
The first evaluation of the coal phase-out, which is now due for autumn, seems all the more important. It is intended to examine the effects of the coal phase-out on the electricity market, heat supply and climate protection, as well as the social compatibility of the phase-out.
The evaluation is required by law, but should have been available by August 2022. With reference to the effects of the Ukraine war, its publication has been postponed several times, most recently at the beginning of July. The law did not provide for the additional examination of an exit in 2030.
According to Christian Görke, member of the Bundestag and finance politician from Lausitz, the federal government took too much time with the evaluation. There must be clarity about questions of energy security, price developments and social compatibility. “Every citizen has to stick to legal deadlines, only the government has the freedom to fool,” said the left-wing politician.
He speaks of disregard for parliament and the opposition, “but above all for the people and companies in Lusatia”. And if the federal government doesn’t put more pressure on the approval process and the creation of new jobs, “it won’t happen by 2030 anyway,” says Görke.