The ministries have been given until May 2nd to submit their budget figures for the coming budget. The next scandal is already looming – and there is a threat of further budget holes.
The government district is deceptively quiet in the sun. Almost tranquil. But things are not harmonious behind the scenes. It’s about a lot of money, about the 2025 budget. The final spurt is underway, there will be elections next year.
Anything that doesn’t fit into the budget will no longer work – and who wants to be publicly scolded for not implementing their projects? Everything depends on these budget negotiations: the planned pension reform, basic child welfare, various climate protection programs, more money for defense. Now the deals take place in the background and the game is on: whoever twitches first loses.
Lindner wants to stick to the debt brake
“Constructive!” It almost sounds like a threat when Finance Minister Christian Lindner uses this word and means the upcoming talks with his coalition partners. He connects the upcoming budget negotiations with the FDP economic concept and believes that everything has to go “hand in hand” and “step by step”.
Lindner wants to strengthen the country’s economic dynamism and also adhere to the debt brake at all costs. The Liberals’ red line is clearly drawn. For this to work, far more than 20 billion euros will have to be saved.
The SPD does not want to shake up the welfare state
There are some proposals for reductions, for example abolishing the tax-free pension at 63 after 45 years of contributions or raising the retirement age. But this is where the SPD is drawing its line: “We won’t change that,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Hamburg at the weekend. The welfare state will not be shaken, the SPD guarantees that.
Instead, the SPD’s economic forum is trying to reignite the debate about the debt brake. Like the FDP, they also point to the sluggish economy, but in a paper they come to a completely different conclusion about the debt brake: “If we stick to it, the costs that future generations will have to bear will dwarf the costs of borrowing place.”
Habeck wants one relief program
The Greens just shake their heads. They initially ignored Lindner’s economic concept. Economics Minister Robert Habeck would like to loosen the debt brake and launch a “short-term but powerful relief program” for the economy.
This is where the lines of the Greens and Liberals intersect, and the Vice Chancellor also sees it: Negotiations over the budget could be difficult, says Habeck. In order for the calculation to be correct in the end, people would either get less money or they would have to pay more: “Nobody can believe that this will be a pleasant operation.”
Cut lists instead of wish lists
The opposition believes it will be a difficult operation that will take time. “We will experience a hot summer and autumn,” says Christian Haase, the Union’s budget spokesman. It’s clear to him that some of the red lines won’t work: “You can’t declare all social benefits sacrosanct. People tend to shake their heads because they can see that the ends don’t fit together. The people are further ahead than theirs Government.”
However, one line will hold, predicts Haase: “We are not moving on the debt brake. That is why there will not be the necessary two-thirds majority for a change to the Basic Law in this legislature.”
And so the traffic light will probably only be able to discuss lists of cuts, not wish lists. Only one of the FDP’s heartfelt concerns could have a future: the FDP would like to abolish the solidarity contribution that companies in particular now pay. This should strengthen the economy.
lawsuit against him Solidarity contribution
Abolishing it could cost billions, which would create another budget hole. This is also why the Greens and the SPD are sticking to solidarity. However, the Federal Constitutional Court wants to decide on a lawsuit against the solidarity contribution this year.
FDP leader Lindner therefore warned at the Liberal party conference: “Before we allow Karlsruhe to force us for legal reasons to have to forego the solidarity immediately and without a plan, we should rather make a clear political decision, moving towards it step by step in a planned manner waive.”
So the Ministry of Finance is working on Plan B. If Karlsruhe were to force the traffic light to abolish the solidarity, it would probably start a new debate as to whether an emergency situation should be declared again and the debt brake should be suspended.
Just a small role for them Tax estimate
This decision still lies in the future. It is said again and again that Chancellor Scholz, Economics Minister Habeck and Finance Minister Lindner will clarify the major lines and major items in the coming weeks.
The tax estimate in mid-May, which budget politicians like to rely on in order to have more leeway in the calculation game, is expected to only play a small role. This is how discussions, negotiations and pressure build up in the back rooms: everyone insists on their lines – no one wants to flinch at first.