Vaccination is one of the explanatory reasons for the drop in the incidence rate in the Nice metropolis – SYSPEO / SIPA
- The Alpes-Maritimes department was one of the first to be fiercely affected this winter by a new wave of Covid-19.
- Professor Michel Carles identifies this episode as an early phenomenon in the natural epidemic cycle.
- Vaccination and restrictive measures are also explanatory reasons for the decline in epidemic indicators at the moment.
Since December 18 and until the end of February, the Nice Côte d’Azur metropolis broke records in terms of incidence rate, that is to say, the number of people infected with the coronavirus for 100,000 inhabitants. The benchmark rose from week to week, going from 437 to 543 then 735, to reach 801 the week before the local and partial containment of the weekend.
Considered the most affected in France, the Nice metropolis is now sixteenth in the ranking with an incidence rate reaching 281 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants, according to figures from the start of the week on the site Covid tracker.
A decrease due, among other things, to the natural cycle of the epidemic phenomenon
According to Professor Michel Carles, head of the infectious disease department of the Nice University Hospital, “the indicators are extremely encouraging, it is three times less than before the first localized and partial confinement”.
He adds: “We do not have enough elements to identify what further influenced this situation between restrictive measures, immunization of the population and vaccination and the natural cycle of the epidemic”.
As the professor analyzes, epidemic phenomena evolve in several phases: increase, stagnation and decrease. “Viral circulation was very important this winter. The peak arrived early compared to other places in France hence the questions about the reasons for this sudden increase ”.
He continues: “Just as it happened prematurely, this epidemic puff is now leaving with a lead over other metropolises, such as those in neighboring departments. The next steps for these places will therefore normally happen later. “
A situation similar to that of last summer?
The infectious disease specialist qualifies: “We can wonder if the incidence rate will drop below 100 to have a situation similar to that of last summer or if we will remain between 100 and 200.”
He nevertheless emphasizes the positive effects of vaccination, particularly on the population over 75 years of age. “There are several reasons for this drop in the infection rate in this age group. First, the progressing vaccination. Then there are those who caught the virus and then were immunized. Last but not least, respecting barrier gestures for this more vulnerable population justifies the drop in the incidence rate ”.
According to Covid tracker, as of April 14, 23.7% of the population of the Alpes-Maritimes had received at least one dose of the vaccine against the coronavirus.