New prime minister, old trouble: In a week it will be clear who will move into 10 Downing Street as Boris Johnson’s successor. Regardless of whether favorite Liz Truss becomes head of government in London or her rival Rishi Sunak, tensions with the EU are likely to continue to escalate. The biggest point of contention is the Northern Ireland Protocol, part of the British exit agreement, which stipulates that the former troubled province will adhere to the EU’s customs and product rules despite Brexit. In the event of their victory, Truss appears to be considering immediately overriding portions of that protocol, citing the relevant Article 16 of the rulebook.
The EU would have to react to such an escalation with all severity. At the same time, this should be an occasion for a sober appraisal of whether the protocol has stood the test of time and whether it has any future at all. Unfortunately, the answer is “no”. The approach sounds impressive: the border between British Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland should remain almost invisible, because otherwise there is a risk of new unrest in the north. Therefore, the protocol guarantees that no vices need to be controlled between Northern Ireland and the EU member Republic of Ireland.
It’s about protecting 447 million consumers in the EU
But that only works because Northern Ireland continues to adhere to EU rules. In addition, at the ferry ports, lorries arriving from England, Wales and Scotland must have their loads checked to ensure food meets EU standards. After all, the trucks can then drive to the Republic of Ireland without being checked – and from there to the other EU countries. This means that border officials from Northern Ireland are also responsible for protecting the EU internal market, i.e. 447 million consumers in Germany and the 26 other member countries, from inferior goods.
Outsourcing the control of imports into the internal market to a third country is daring – and a huge leap of faith from Brussels towards the British government. But the populist Johnson abused this trust. He only partially implemented the obligations under the protocol and published a law giving his government the right to break the treaty. London argues the new customs bureaucracy is unacceptable for companies transporting goods from England, Scotland or Wales to Northern Ireland.
But this bureaucracy is not a surprise; it is a logical consequence of the Protocol’s approach. Nevertheless, the EU Commission has submitted proposals on how the burden could be reduced. But that’s not enough for the government in London. Agreement is also made more difficult by the fact that the protocol has now become an object of hatred for Northern Ireland’s Unionists, i.e. those politicians and citizens who are in favor of close ties with Great Britain.
The Commission has initiated proceedings for breaches of contract that could eventually lead to punitive tariffs. Truss is now largely repealing the protocol, but Brussels should hit back harder. The EU could terminate the trade agreement, which was concluded on the basis that the British would abide by the previously signed withdrawal agreement and protocol. If terminated, tariffs would be imposed after 12 months – unless both sides agree on a new treaty and arrangement for Northern Ireland by then.
How much is peace worth in Northern Ireland?
The existing set of rules obviously doesn’t work: the British government and the unionists absolutely don’t want any customs bureaucracy for deliveries to Northern Ireland. This means that the basis for the EU’s risky experiment of having access to the internal market controlled by a third country has been removed. London should make its own alternative proposals for how the border on the island of Ireland can remain invisible. For example, one possibility would be that the whole of the UK continues to closely follow EU product and customs rules, not just Northern Ireland. Unfortunately, Brexit should actually bring the great freedom of Brussels regulation. Truss will ultimately have to decide how much peace and stability in Northern Ireland is worth to her.