As of: 09/22/2021 9:20 p.m.
In Brussels, people are looking forward to the Bundestag election with excitement, because one thing is clear: whoever sits in the German Chancellery has a lot of weight in the EU. The to-do list for Merkel’s successor is correspondingly long.
A completely new Germany feeling has spread in the Europaviertel: after 16 years of “Merkelism” something will change in Germany! And it doesn’t matter who moves into the Chancellery at the end of the day – it also has a leading role in Europe. “A German Chancellor always carries great weight”, says Jim Cloos. The Luxembourger knows the European power structure like no other.
For decades he was a high-ranking EU official, prepared countless EU summits and lashed final declarations in advance. As Vice Secretary General of the Council, Cloos was able to observe how German Chancellors moved on the European stage. “Kohl, Schröder and Merkel have – all in their own way – Leadership exercised “. And what was special about Angela Merkel’s leadership?” Ms. Merkel devoted a lot of time to the dialogue with her colleagues in the European Council. “
The legendary “Merkel Method”
Looking for compromises, keeping the business together, avoiding tough decisions – the Merkel method is legendary in Brussels. But there are also increasingly critical voices who expect more from the largest member state: solutions for the major construction sites in Europe.
For example in climate policy. If the transformation of industry to climate-friendly production is to succeed, the largest economy is crucial, says Vice Commissioner Frans Timmermans for a long time.
His most recent declaration on the need to change course could be understood as an open warning to those election campaigners in Germany who regularly only focus on the costs of climate protection: “We must under all circumstances prevent social justice from being played off against climate protection,” warned Timmermans in front of the European Parliament last week. In the end, no climate protection leads to “the worst social injustices”.
Timmerman’s climate package includes emission-free cars from 2035, charging stations for electric cars, the massive expansion of renewable energies and a climate social fund. But negotiations on this can only begin with the new federal government. Many worry that the coalition talks in Berlin will drag on for months.
Development in Eastern Europe is explosive
Brussels expects a lot from Berlin on other EU construction sites too. How do you deal with Hungary and Poland? Merkel always focused on integration; everyone should stay on board. The fact that EU billions have been distributed at will for years, that minorities are subject to defamation and that journalists and judges are muzzled – no breach of the rule of law could dissuade the Chancellor from her course.
It can hardly be continued after the general election: Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has found a successor, several countries in Eastern Europe are moving away from the idea of the liberal constitutional state – and this development has explosive power for the entire Union.
Long to-do list
Tom Nuttall, the Berlin correspondent for the Economist, finds it strange that not even the most important European issues played a role in the federal election campaign. In his opinion, it is clear that there is a lot on the European to-do list for the new government. “There will be European challenges and tests for Germany,” he says. Nuttall sees the first test case in the discussion about changing the debt rules – “whether Germany wants it or not”.
Whoever succeeds Merkel, Nuttall suspects, will also have to take a different course in China policy: there is strong pressure for change towards a policy that sees China no longer only as a customer for German products, but also as one Rivals.
And Germany’s future role among the EU member states? “It is noticeable that the rest of Europe expects a certain amount of leadership from Germany,” while the Germans themselves seemed rather hesitant, says Nuttall.
Germany’s voice counts
There are plenty of challenges, says the former EU top official Cloos. He lists: the implementation of the Corona aid program, the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, the burden-sharing in the fight against climate change, finally an agreement on migration policy and also the open question of how the EU can play its role as a “global player” will perceive. “The voice of Germany will count in all of these areas,” said Cloos and predicts: “In one area or another, the federal government may have to jump over its shadow.”