Thomas Strobl will be taking the stage soon. But first the attention goes to this impressive robot, white arms, white head, tablet on the chest. The robot can speak, gesture and answer important questions about internet security. For example, if you want to know whether it is safe if Barack Obama’s account on the platform wants to give you X Bitcoins, the robot warns: Be careful! Most likely a trap.
Then Thomas Strobl steps up to the microphone, who, as Baden-Württemberg’s interior minister, is of course also responsible for criminal Obama impersonators. How well prepared is the country against digital attacks? That’s what this Friday’s cybersecurity forum in Stuttgart is all about. “Resilience” is crucial, says Strobl, i.e. the ability to deal with “significant challenges”. The robot’s eyes light up.
Resilience is the quality that the politician Strobl has to a considerable extent. No election defeat was so bitter, no affair so scandalous, that Strobl could not overcome this challenge. Strobl is now 63, has been state chairman of the Southwest CDU for twelve years and has been deputy prime minister for seven years. But these days there is a particularly urgent question that even the clever robot cannot answer: for how much longer?
In November the CDU will elect a new state chairman. And if you don’t misinterpret the mood, many are just waiting for the news that Strobl is vacating the position. His reputation has suffered considerably recently. There was the complicated affair surrounding the country’s highest-ranking police officer. There was the confidential lawyer’s letter that Strobl passed on to a journalist. In the end, the public prosecutor’s office dropped the case because Strobl paid a fine. He of all people, the Interior Minister.
“His time has come,” believes one of the CDU state executive committee. Strobl no longer has any support. There is talk in the party of a “mood for change”, of a “generational change”. However, it is not so clear whether the incumbent has already come to this conclusion.
A morning in August. On the town hall square in Kehl near the French border, the heat is like an oven. Journalists and police officers flee into the shadows, Strobl stands unimpressed in the sun, despite his shirt and jacket. On this day he inspects what he calls the “police station of the future.” Patrolling in an electric car, accident recording using a smartphone. “We need the will to innovate,” says Strobl. He then praises Baden-Württemberg as “one of the safest federal states in the republic”, oh no, “on the planet”. Everyone is talking about his possible departure, Strobl is talking about his successes.
The 63-year-old has not yet officially commented on his future
If the debate about himself, which isn’t always friendly, bothers him, he doesn’t let it show. The 63-year-old has not yet officially commented on his future. That’s why impatience is growing in the CDU.
Strobl took over the party after the disastrous state elections in 2011. The once proud regional association was on the ground, shocked and quite insulted because the voters had dared to allow a Green party to move into Villa Reitzenstein after decades of Christian Democratic hegemony. Strobl had to pick up the pieces. “He held the store together in a very difficult situation,” said one deputy.
In 2016, Strobl led the CDU back into state government as a junior partner of the Greens, which many in the parliamentary group only endured with pain. “I was the bridge builder. No one else would have built this bridge, and that also applies to 2021,” says Strobl. His advocates believe that he has prevented the total fiasco and opened the CDU to ecological concerns. His opponents believe he was less concerned with saving nature than with his own company car. In any case, the self-proclaimed “Baden-Württemberg Party” has not found its former glory. The hope that this will change in the next state election is based almost exclusively on the fact that Winfried Kretschmann is no longer running.
Strobl has had a trusting relationship with Kretschmann for years. Kretschmann appreciates Strobl’s reliability. Strobl appreciates Kretschmann’s ecological conservatism – and probably also the fact that he never gave up on him when others called for his resignation. Now two long careers seem to be heading towards opposite ends. Kretschmann is appreciated by everyone, Strobl is tolerated at best. Or underestimated again?
After visiting Kehl, Strobl sits on the terrace of the Renchtalhütte, with a wonderful view over the mountains in the Black Forest. When you ask him about his plans, he smiles. Impossible to tell what he’s thinking. Just this much about the personnel debates: “It’s not an issue at all among people outside. People on the street really don’t care about it.”
Is he serious? Or is he tactical? Strobl has always managed to stay in the game. Balancing interests, distributing positions, that’s what he knows how to do. The only thing the party never trusted him to achieve was the highest honor, the top candidate in a state election. Less robust characters would probably have given up at some point. But Strobl simply carried on with a mixture of callousness and equanimity.
That’s how it was when the police affair gripped the country and Strobl didn’t cut a good figure. The investigative committee is still ongoing. He is now considered a “damaged minister” even by his green coalition partner. An accusation that he responded to with demonstrative calm on the Black Forest Terrace: “You have to differentiate between criticism with substance and party political maneuvers.” Parts of the opposition are “only concerned with the latter.”
A change of power is always a sensitive moment. It doesn’t just take a weakened leader. It also needs someone new to step forward.
Many in the CDU believe that Manuel Hagel will take on this task. Strobl once made the MP from Ehningen general secretary. Hagel is now chairman of the state parliamentary group. A steep career for a 35-year-old that could soon get a little steeper. Hagel is said to be very interested in Strobl’s position. This would make him the logical top candidate in the next state election.
Manuel Hagel, CDU parliamentary group leader in the state parliament of Baden-Württemberg
(Photo: Marijan Murat/dpa)
A critical mass of Christian Democrats trust him to lead the party back to its former glory. His strategic thinking and his efforts to pacify intra-party conflicts are praised. Traditionalists versus liberals, the dispute has paralyzed the regional association for two decades. Hagel announced on Friday that there would be no power struggle for the state chairman. The personnel details will be clarified in the next few days.
The 35-year-old is less peaceful when dealing with his green coalition partner. Hagel has just publicly ruled out the possibility that his group could elect a Green party other than Kretschmann as Prime Minister. This annoyed many Greens. An official bonus for a potential Kretschmann successor plays an important role in their strategic considerations.
In the CDU, however, Hagel’s initiative was well received. It is seen as an expression of the party’s new self-confidence. And as an indication that the center of power in the party has permanently shifted. Hail is now setting the tone, they say. He is ready for all the power. But until the resilient Strobl officially announces his resignation, minimal residual doubts remain.