The number of physicians will continue to “stagnate” until 2027, before increasing significantly until 2050. However, the growing needs of an aging population must be taken into account. However, taking this parameter into account, the density will only return to its 2021 level “around 2032”, according to projections from the Ministry of Health published on Tuesday.
The Department of Statistics of the Ministry (Drees) thus updates a model carried out for the first time in 2021, on the occasion of the National Health Conference, taking into account “the most recent developments in medical demography”. “Under assumptions of constant behavior and legislation”, the model “shows a stagnation in the workforce until 2027, before a fairly significant increase until 2050” i.e. “+1.7% average annual growth in the workforce between 2030 and 2050”, indicates the DREES in a press release.
The number of GPs is decreasing
But in the meantime, the French population will continue to grow and age, increasing “needs for care”. The “standardized medical density”, which incorporates this data, should “return to its 2021 level only around 2032”, then “start to rise again to be 31% higher than the current density in 2050”, details the Drees.
These projections are based on the number of professionals “under the age of 70 in activity”. Taking into account all the doctors, the DREES counted 230,143 doctors on January 1, 2023, including 99,457 general practitioners and 130,686 specialists. “The number of general practitioners in activity continues to decrease” (approximately -500 since January 1, 2022), while that of specialist doctors continues to grow (+1,300), specifies the Drees.