The famous “Secu gap” is widening, and it’s not going to get better. The Social Security deficit will in fact be greater than expected in 2023 and 2024, then will increase and double by 2027, according to the preliminary draft law on financing Social Security, consulted Tuesday by the AFP.
The deficit this year is now estimated at 8.8 billion euros (compared to 8.2 billion planned in the last financing law in April), then at 11.2 billion in 2024 (compared to 9.6 planned in April). The deficit should then reach 15.8 billion euros in 2025 (compared to 13 mentioned so far), then 17.5 billion in 2026 and 17.9 billion in 2027.
Healthcare costs are soaring
After an abysmal deficit of almost 40 billion euros in 2020 due to Covid-19, Social Security had gradually reduced its losses. But the 2023 accounts are weighed down by a slippage in health spending: the national health insurance spending objective (Ondam) is projected at 247.6 billion euros, compared to 244.8 initially forecast in April.
This gap is explained “mainly” by the salary increases at the hospital, announced in June 2023, and by a larger than expected increase in community care, “in a context of high inflation pushing certain expenses upwards”. such as compensation for sick leave, details the text.
The deficit in the old age branch too
In an amendment to the public finance programming bill, currently being examined in the National Assembly, the government had already indicated that Ondam would increase by 4.8% (excluding Covid) in 2023 then by 3.2 % in 2024.
The government also expects that the deficit in the old-age sector will continue to widen as expected, but less quickly than expected immediately after the pension reform, with no explanation at this stage. It is expected to go from -1.9 billion in 2023 to -13.6 billion in 2027.