He was the charismatic and formidable leader of the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner group. Yevgueni Prigozhin is on the list of ten passengers on a plane that crashed on Wednesday while trying to reach St. Petersburg from Moscow. All eyes are on the Kremlin, this presumed death having the air of Putin’s revenge, a few months after the attempted mutiny. Vladimir Putin also hailed a “talented” man who made “mistakes”, promising an investigation “carried out to the end”. But another question arises: what will become of the private group now orphaned by its emblematic boss, its co-founder, Dmitri Utkin and Valéri Tchekalov, its logistics manager, who were also on the plane that crashed?
A caliph instead of the caliph
At this stage, without an announcement from the Kremlin since the announcement of the disappearance of the sulphurous Evgueni Prigojine, only hypotheses are possible. There is that of the replacement of the leader by another leader. A new caliph to replace the one who was taking up too much space in the media. But the character of Evgueni Prigojine is undoubtedly irreplaceable. “He was the face of Wagner thanks to his staging from Bakhmout, with his men, in military clothes, he had become charismatic even beyond the ranks of Wagner”, underlines Isabelle Dufour, director of strategic studies at Eurocrise . “He had acquired popularity and credibility vis-à-vis the Russian military in view of what was happening on the ground,” she adds.
Moreover, the only military conquest in Ukraine since the recapture of Kherson by Ukrainian soldiers is Russian, and it is signed Wagner for the most part. Even Vladimir Putin acknowledges that the victims of Wagner’s plane crash made a “significant contribution” to Ukraine. The radiance of Evgueni Prigojine, the image of his ruthless, extreme and formidable group allowed him a craze of recruits.
It will be difficult to find a new leader with such a glibness. “I don’t see who could replace this figure because Yevgueni Prigojine has really built an image unlike that of Vladimir Putin, colder and disconnected from field operations. There is no equivalent, ”slices Isabelle Dufour. But maybe this is not the desired effect? Wouldn’t Vladimir Putin have an interest in choosing a leader who is less bewitching but more loyal to the Kremlin?
The end of Wagner as we know him
The second solution is to change everything while keeping the essentials. Because the group of mercenaries is not just a group of mercenaries. It is also a business network. It has diversified into mining exploration and the exploitation of various natural resources, particularly in Africa. To conserve these resources and Russian influence abroad, “Wagner will probably be replaced by another structure that will do the same thing, with the same personnel, except for lieutenants loyal to Yevgeny Prigozhin”, in turn assumes Thierry Vircoulon, Associate Researcher at Ifri’s Africa Center. “This death is part of the long list of oligarchs close to Russian power who have died mysteriously since the start of the war in Ukraine. These people die, but the companies survive them”, develops the researcher.
The corporate network could also be dismantled into several mini-empires left to the lesser various oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin. This is a third hypothesis. In any case “it’s the end of Wagner as we know him”, asserts Isabelle Dufour. Because in addition to Evgueni Prigojine, “it’s the whole head of the group who was killed in the crash, there will be, in any case, a reorganization”, she adds.
No change in Ukraine
The putsch attempt on the night of June 23 to 24 put a sight on Yevgueni Prigojine’s temple. But Wagner was already falling apart in Ukraine. Ten days earlier, a decree from the Russian Ministry of Defense demanded the integration of voluntary private militia units into the regular army, targeting Wagner’s army in particular. “The Kremlin had already announced the color: either the soldiers accept a contract with the Ministry of Defense and integrate the military structure, or it is unemployment”, summarizes Thierry Vircoulon.
Its likely forthcoming reorganization should therefore not disrupt the course of the fighting on the ground in Ukraine. “They were already out of the game”, abounds Isabelle Dufour. In the medium term all the same, the specialist underlines that the absence of Wagner could “be harmful”, but “if the group is reconstituted in the regular army, the impact will be minor, even insignificant”.