French GDP is timidly starting to grow again. The Banque de France confirmed on Tuesday its growth forecast of 0.25% for France in the second quarter, while noting that recruitment difficulties are increasing.
“In a difficult environment marked by the war in Ukraine and the strong tensions on the raw materials markets, the activity continues to resist even if the heads of companies report mixed prospects”, she indicates. in its monthly business survey. The Banque de France also expects growth of 2.3% over the whole of 2022, like Insee, while the government is counting on 2.5%.
“Uncertainties are on the rise again” in services
After the 0.2% decline in GDP in the first quarter, economic activity picked up again in April, accelerated a little in May, and stabilized in June, details the Banque de France, which adds that this stabilization would be confirmed in July, according to the first feedback from the 8,500 companies questioned in its survey.
It is above all services that are supporting activity, in particular certain business services (information, advertising, market research), even if others, such as transport and warehousing services, are in decline, still penalized by the difficulties of recruitment and price increases. But overall in services, “uncertainties are on the rise again”, underlines the Banque de France, due to the resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemic, recruitment difficulties and concerns about the evolution of demand in the inflationary environment.
Better on the price front
With regard to recruitment, the problems encountered by companies in hiring increased further by 3 points in June and now concern 58% of companies “the highest level reached” since spring 2021, the date on which the Banque de France began to ask companies about it. A year ago, 37% of companies said they had recruitment difficulties. The sectors most affected are programming activities, temporary work, technical services, aeronautics and finishing work in the building industry.
Conversely, on the price front, fewer business leaders report having increased their selling prices in June, and this for the second month in a row, a sign of a “slowdown” in the rise in commodity prices. and fewer supply difficulties. This trend “masks differences between sectors”, however qualifies the Banque de France, with a situation which is still worsening in chemicals, rubber-plastics or even the wood and paper industry.