The Banque de France said on Tuesday that it had slightly raised its growth forecast for the first quarter in France, to 0.2%, thanks to the dynamism of industry and services at the start of the year. The central bank had so far expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.1% in the first quarter, compared with the previous three months.
“Activity was rather resilient in the first quarter,” commented Hélène Tanguy, director of economic surveys at the Banque de France, during a press conference.
“Dynamism” for the industry
This upward revision is attributed by the central bank to the “dynamism of activity in industry and market services over the first two months of the year”. January and February “are months of good activity”, underlined Guy Levy-Rueff, director of economic conditions and macroeconomic forecasts of the Banque de France.
This is evidenced, he noted during the press briefing, by the “clear rise” in the indices of production in services for January and industrial production for February, published by INSEE.
Optimism
The central bank had already reported in March of renewed optimism for the French economy in 2023, again doubling its forecast for annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) to 0.6%. She had highlighted inflation (in particular energy) which would be less strong than expected for the year, as well as “higher growth in global demand”.
In March, activity increased in industry (particularly IT products, automobiles and aeronautics), market services (particularly business services) and construction (thanks to finishing work), according to the heads of around 8,500 companies surveyed by the Banque de France between March 29 and April 5.
Uncertainty for April
But overall, taking into account sectors not covered by the survey, such as refining, electricity production, waste management or transport services, it would fall back, affected in particular by the strikes against the government project. pension reform.
For April, uncertainty remains high. Companies are anticipating a further increase in activity in industry and services, but a decline in construction.