The 1997 article names ten things that can go wrong by 2021 – and is shockingly up-to-date

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Disasters, crises, failures
The 1997 article names ten things that can go wrong by 2021 – and is shockingly up-to-date

Climate change is also part of the horror scenario

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Twenty-four years ago “Wired” magazine named ten things that could ruin the future of humanity. A Reddit user dug out the old article – and found it terribly up-to-date.

It was actually a radically optimistic article published in 1997 by the tech magazine Wired. In the text “The Long Boom” the authors describe the scenario of a 25 year long upswing: new technologies and an era of openness would bring prosperity for billions of people, less political tension and better living and environmental conditions around the world, so the tenor the outlook bubbling with optimism for progress.

Now the 25 years are almost up and a user of the online forum Reddit remembered that the Wired editorial team had added a small box to the main article at the time. In it: ten things that could ensure that the long boom and mankind unfortunately pretty much screwed up until the beginning of the 2020s. And, well, “almost every single point has come true,” they say in the Reddit post with the list from back then, which immediately went viral.

Only Brexit does not occur

In fact, the negative scenario formulated decades ago is in part terrifyingly topical. One item in the list is, for example, “an uncontrollable disease – a modern influenza epidemic” that is spreading like wildfire and killing many millions of people. An increasingly escalating Cold War between China and the USA and a new Russian threat to Europe are also mentioned. Cracks within the European Union between Western and Eastern European countries are also predicted – but even the pessimists in the editorial team did not have Brexit on the slip at the time.

Other parts of the horror scenario are at least difficult to recognize: environmental degradation and a sharp increase in cancer diseases. Climate change and famine. Exploding energy prices, a surge in terrorism and a social and cultural backlash that prevents much-needed progress.


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Really come true?

Whether “almost every” point on the dystopian list has come true is, however, heavily discussed in the 2000 or so comments on the Reddit posting. There you will also find users who take the complete opposite position and explain why, from their point of view, not a single one of the black paintings mentioned has really come about. There has indeed been a great economic boom in parts of the world. And when it comes to predicting the new type of influenza epidemic, there is talk of 200 million deaths, which we are still a long way from in the corona pandemic, despite everything. In the case of other points, it is simply a matter of interpretation to what extent they are fulfilled.

Here are the ten points from the 1997 article that, from the authors’ point of view at the time, could go wrong by the 2020s.

  1. Tensions between China and the US are escalating into a new cold war that borders on a hot war.
  2. New technologies are proving to be a flop. They just don’t bring the expected productivity gains or the big economic boom.
  3. Russia is developing into a mafia-led kleptocracy or withdrawing into a quasi-communist nationalism that threatens Europe.
  4. The European integration process is stalling. Eastern and Western Europe are unable to bring about reunification, and the process of the European Union also fails.
  5. A severe ecological crisis leads to global climate change, which, among other things, disrupts the food supply and leads to sharp price increases and isolated famines everywhere.
  6. A sharp rise in crime and terrorism is forcing the world to withdraw out of fear. People who constantly feel like they are about to be blown up or robbed are in no mood to open up.
  7. The cumulative escalation of pollution is leading to a dramatic increase in cancer incidence that overwhelms the ill-prepared health system.
  8. Energy prices are skyrocketing. The unrest in the Middle East is cutting oil supplies and eliminating the use of alternative energy sources.
  9. An uncontrollable epidemic – a modern influenza epidemic or its equivalent – spreads like wildfire, killing up to 200 million people.
  10. A social and cultural backlash brings progress to a standstill. People have to choose to move forward. They just may not do it ..

And here is the main Wired article from 1997 in the Online version

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