The corona numbers are rising to a record level, the clinics are becoming full again. What should be done now? Scientists have suggestions. Christian Drosten even speaks of “shutdown measures”.
After more than one and a half years of Corona and widespread pandemic fatigue, hardly anyone wants to hear such sentences. In the short term, measures must be discussed again, “which we actually hoped to have behind us,” said the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten in the NDR podcast “The Coronavirus Update”, which was published on Tuesday evening. “So we must now probably control the infection activity again through contact measures – not likely, but certainly,” said the virologist. However, he also restricted the fact that it could be legally difficult to enforce broad general contact restrictions.
Drosten predicts new shutdown measures
Drosten expects a very stressful winter “with new, let’s say calmly: shutdown measures”. Measures such as 3G or even 2G are probably not enough to reduce the number of infections enough in view of the delta variant. He spoke of a “real emergency situation” given the situation in the intensive care units. “We have to do something right now.”
Other researchers also have suggestions on how to deal with the current corona wave. “The 2G plus test should become the standard over the winter,” said Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology in Bremen. This would mean that only those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered have access to certain locations and have to be additionally tested. Because vaccinated and convalescent people (2G) could also become infected. “It is urgently necessary that we return from relaxation mode to seriousness mode, unfortunately all vaccinated people too.” Some particularly badly affected federal states have already tightened their corona rules in the past few days.
Everyone must be clear: “The vaccination works well against severe courses, but significantly less and less and less against infections with distance from the vaccination date,” says Zeeb. Investigations are needed here. Regular testing, especially in the professional environment and in schools, should ideally be made compulsory again.
Epidemiologist: 2G could be a vaccination incentive
Even fully vaccinated people must be made clearer than before that they can still be infected and pass on the infection and that in individual cases a severe course is possible, explained Jan Fuhrmann, an expert in mathematical epidemiology at Heidelberg University. “This is especially true in situations in which you are exposed to a large number of viruses in the air you breathe, especially if you spend a long time with many people in a confined space with poor ventilation.” Many of those affected would, on their own initiative, exercise more caution in view of this information, without having to tighten the rules, he suspected.
From Fuhrmann’s point of view, pure 2G rules, for example when entering restaurants, are not the solution when it comes to merely containing the spread of infection – as long as they are not accompanied by an additional test obligation for vaccinated and convalescent people. “What 2G does is an additional vaccination incentive and the reduction of the risk that someone present suffers a severe course if infected people are present and infections take place.”
The researchers also emphasize the importance of vaccinations, especially so-called booster or booster vaccinations. This increased the protection considerably even before the mere infection, said Fuhrmann. “However, here again it is not clear how long this effect will last.” Overall, the difference between the risk of a severe course between completely vaccinated and unvaccinated is greater than that between people with and without a booster vaccination.
Zeeb: Maintain the mask requirement indoors
Especially with a view to the protection of particularly threatened groups of people, from Zeeb’s point of view there is no avoiding a compulsory vaccination – including booster compulsory – for nursing and medical professions. The vaccination speed also urgently needs to be increased significantly again, he demanded. “Whether it is possible to vaccinate one percent of the population every day without vaccination centers, as in the summer of 2021, I am skeptical.” Fuhrmann spoke out in favor of offering those affected a booster vaccination at least promptly.
A refresher is also advisable for endangered groups of people, said Fuhrmann. People who have already been vaccinated are also easier to reach. “With those who have not yet been vaccinated, it is likely to become increasingly difficult to reach those who have not yet taken advantage of a vaccination offer.”
According to the mathematician, it is practically impossible to specify a target for vaccination rates when it comes to avoiding infections. “The Delta variant is so contagious that even an almost complete vaccination would not lead to the disease being eradicated, especially since the effectiveness of the vaccines against the pure infection declines within a few months.” The protection against serious illness, however, lasts much longer, even if it is not perfect. “There will always be a small proportion of those who have been vaccinated who can become seriously ill despite being vaccinated,” he summarized. “With many millions of people vaccinated, this small part also makes up tens or even hundreds of thousands of people.”
From the point of view of epidemiologist Zeeb, the mask requirement in narrow indoor spaces should also be maintained or expanded again, regardless of whether 2G or 3G. “And we have to think consistently about the global future: If we don’t want to constantly react to newly registered corona infections, then the support of the global vaccination campaign remains indispensable and must have as much impetus as the fight against pandemics here.”
Research warns: Fast boosters could break the fourth wave
For Viola Priesemann from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen, it is important that politicians, above all, clearly communicate the goal of their strategy. Then you can adjust the measures accordingly. “If the goal is not defined, then some of the measures fizzle out,” said the researcher. With the strategy, the question arises whether we should stay at the limit of the intensive care units for many weeks or whether the stress there should be reduced with correspondingly stronger measures.
“Both are realistic scenarios, because the vaccination and boosting will take some time to take effect,” emphasized Priesemann. With the current vaccination rate of 0.2 percent of the population per day, it also takes months to reach half of the people with boosters, as in Israel. “A really quick, low-threshold vaccination and boosting would here – just like in Israel – break the current wave with great certainty.”