The budding traffic light coalitioners of the SPD, Greens and FDP can expect good news this week. They are likely to have significantly more money available than previously expected to invest in climate, transport, education and the digital world. This is based on calculations for the current estimate of tax revenues up to 2025.
According to information from Süddeutsche Zeitung the federal government could therefore expect additional annual income “in the high single-digit billions”, possibly “a little more”. The plus for the federal states is likely to be significantly greater; all in all, the federal government, states and municipalities could also have “a mid-double-digit billion amount annually” available.
The economic upturn, good employment figures and inflation are seen as the drivers for the government’s financial plus. The tax estimate of the working group located at the Federal Ministry of Finance, in which the economic research institutes, the Bundesbank, the Economic Advisory Council and representatives from the federal, state and local governments are involved, runs until Thursday – then the final result should be presented. The increases relate to a comparison with the last tax estimate that took place in May.
The expected higher tax revenues will increase the financial leeway for the next federal government and at the same time relieve the pressure on the traffic lights to have to go roundabout the financing of the planned additional 50 billion euros per year in investments via the establishment and reorganization of state companies. The advantage of these detours would be that the state could invest without the additional loans being offset against new borrowing – this would allow the traffic light to comply with the debt brake as planned from 2023 onwards.
The prospective coalition partners had negotiated to use Deutsche Bahn, the public federal agency for real estate tasks (Bima) and the state development bank KfW to take out loans. So far, however, the SPD, Greens and FDP have not been able to agree. “The financing through these state-owned companies is still in the process of being found,” said a SZ person who took part in the negotiations. As a counter-argument, for example, it is cited that experience has shown that it takes a very long time to restructure societies in Germany; think of the Autobahn company. The traffic lights must start immediately.
A new report by renowned financial constitution lawyers from the LMU University in Munich, prepared on behalf of the think tank “Department Future”, also shows that there could be greater leeway for additional loans within the current debt brake. Almost twenty billion euros in additional financial leeway are possible, says director Philippa Sigl-Glöckner.
In the middle of the week, the coalition working group on finances intends to present its proposals; then the finances are negotiated at the executive level.