analysis
Kiev demands, Berlin hesitates and then it is delivered: That’s how it always went with German arms deliveries to Ukraine. The “Taurus” debate is also moving in this direction. Scholz acts like a driven man.
The Chancellery is still silent. “There is no new status to report on the Taurus cruise missile,” says a government spokeswoman. A pattern has long been emerging in the support of Ukraine with military equipment: Kiev demands, Berlin hesitates and in the end it is delivered. This was the case with the “Marder” infantry fighting vehicle, the “Mars” rocket launcher and most recently the “Leopard” main battle tank. And with the “Taurus” it probably boils down to that too. Or the federal government succeeds in making a convincing offer with other military options.
escalation of the conflict
Chancellor Olaf Scholz always seems driven. His concern about a possible escalation of the conflict seems to be too great. After all, the “Taurus” cruise missiles have a range of up to 500 kilometers. Ukraine could use it to attack targets far inland from Russia.
The fact that the chancellor wants to prevent exactly that is indicated by talks that, according to “Spiegel” information, are said to be taking place between the federal government and the “Taurus” manufacturer. Accordingly, Scholz only wants to release the delivery of the cruise missiles when attacks on Russian territory by means of technical modifications can definitely be ruled out.
concerns also in Department of Defense
These are concerns shared within the Department of Defense. There, too, there seems to be great concern that Ukraine could use cruise missiles to attack targets in the Russian hinterland. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has been reluctant to negative about “Taurus” deliveries. “We are still of the opinion that this is not our top priority right now,” he said recently.
According to the manufacturer, a modification of “Taurus” is possible, but it also takes time. In addition, there are valid arguments against such a limitation of the possible uses of cruise missiles. The attack on Ukraine is not only coordinated from Russian territory, but also organized. In addition to command centers, there are also fuel and weapons depots for the supply of Russian troops. Cutting off these supply lines could make a decisive contribution to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. In addition, even international law allows Ukraine, as an attacked country, to also target military targets in Russia.
The Ukrainians are likely to perceive technical changes to the “Taurus” as distrust of them. Scholz repeatedly emphasizes Germany’s solidarity. However, as the war dragged on and the front consolidated, quite a few Ukrainians also feared a drop in military support from the West. Concerns that primarily play into the hands of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
“Taurus” delivery would not be a solo effort
Olaf Scholz’s hesitation about the “Taurus” is also reminiscent of past debates, because once again the argument is that Germany shouldn’t go it alone. As with the supply of main battle tanks, Great Britain has led the way. Like France, the country has already delivered a comparable weapon system to Ukraine with the “Storm Shadow” or “Scalp”.
The United States, on which Scholz has already made his decision on the “Leopard” dependent, has so far not wanted to deliver any cruise missiles to Ukraine. Washington may share Berlin’s concerns. However, US President Joe Biden is also facing a difficult election campaign in which the Republicans are already backing the “America First” card. In addition, politicians from the US Democrats have repeatedly made it clear that they expect more independence from the Europeans.
Use in Ukraine possible
Technical questions as to whether the “Taurus” cruise missiles can be shot down at all by the Ukrainian “Sukhoi” fighter jets have long since been answered. The Ukrainians had the British-French variant operational within a few weeks. In addition, the “Taurus” manufacturer itself advertises that its system can be used with a number of different types of aircraft.
Thus, hardly anything seems to speak against a delivery of cruise missiles to Ukraine. While the Greens and the FDP are now also in favor of MPs from the SPD chancellor party, Scholz is still hesitating. And also from the house of Defense Minister Pistorius it was said on Friday only briefly: “A political decision to hand over was not made.”