Status: 10/10/2021 4:46 a.m.
Taiwan today celebrates the 110th anniversary of its founding. Beijing has significantly increased its military activities off the island – and yet hardly any Taiwanese are afraid of an attack.
The Taiwanese air defense warned the People’s Liberation Army: “Warning, you have penetrated our airspace surveillance zone. You are affecting our security. Turn back immediately!” That was October 2nd. But the warnings went unheard – on the contrary, China sent more planes.
“The past few days have shown that China’s air force fleet would be able to sustain a large-scale attack on Taiwan’s east coast and even a potential US naval fleet in the western Pacific for several days,” said Chieh Chong, defense researcher at the National Policy Foundation is close to the Taiwanese opposition. “This not only increases the danger for Taiwan, but also the US Navy feels the increased threat.”
China will overtake USA
Bomb planes and fighter jets were used, as they would probably be in a real attack. Although major Chinese maneuvers always take place in autumn, says Chen, it was never as massive as this time: “From the course of the maneuver, we can see very clearly that the combat skills of the entire Chinese air force have increased significantly.”
A result of years of training and continuous modernization, says the security expert. Military strategists assume that China will overtake the US Army in real strength by 2027.
“It’s like an earthquake”
In Taiwan, meanwhile, there have been vigorous rehearsals for the national holiday in the past few days – with military parades, air shows and dances. The media did not report more strongly than usual about the maneuvers of the big neighbor.
“As long as these provocation maneuvers are closely monitored, we are not very worried,” says one teacher. “When my students talk about this topic, they are not particularly afraid. We trust in our country.”
“It doesn’t worry me. I think it’s a natural reaction from China: It wants to strengthen itself through an invasion. But as a Taiwanese I’ve known it for years, and it was no different among the nationalists,” says a 30-year-old Bank clerk. “It’s like earthquakes: they can happen every day, but that doesn’t mean you have to live in constant fear.”
Risk of an accident causing war
Taiwan would not have a chance against China militarily, but is trying to form alliances at various levels and is continuing to expand its defense budget. It already devours a fifth of the total budget.
China’s combat strength has increased massively in the last year. But it will be a while before a quick military conquest of Taiwan is possible, says Chieh Chong of the National Political Foundation. “I’m more afraid of a war or conflict that could ignite as a result of an accident.”
There was such a thing only a few days ago, a US nuclear submarine collided with what it was called an “object” in the South Pacific near Guam. Fortunately, nothing else happened.
Above the earth there are also the first signs of a relaxation between the two great powers USA and China. Before the end of the year, the two presidents Biden and Xi Jing Ping want to meet for a virtual summit. That could be good for Taiwan too.