Who can, who should and who is allowed to have a say about peace for Ukraine? For a Swiss initiative, it is not Russia that is initially being courted, but rather another major power.
A Swiss mountain hotel, a fantastic view of the lake – and everyone is talking about peace for Ukraine, which Russia has been waging war on for two years. Neutral Switzerland is planning a peace conference on the Bürgenstock near Lucerne on June 15th and 16th.
But the meeting will have nothing to do with peace negotiations – two parties to the conflict plus mediators. It’s about Ukraine getting more international support for its position. Moscow doesn’t need to be at the table for this. Nevertheless, the meeting could gain weight if the leaders of the G7 make a trip to Switzerland after their summit in Italy. Questions and answers about what to expect:
What should be achieved at the meeting?
“The aim of the conference is to find opportunities and ways to start the peace process,” said Swiss President Viola Amherd. A joint final declaration should be negotiated for this purpose. The aim is to achieve a “lasting and just peace in Ukraine,” said Amherd.
It is clear that Russia will have to be involved sooner or later, said Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis. “This is the backbreaking work that has to be done.”
Can anything come of it if Moscow doesn’t participate?
The goal for Kiev is not to work out a peace solution that is acceptable to everyone at the summit. Above all, Ukraine wants to secure the support of neutral states that are friendly to Moscow. These would be countries like China, India, South Africa or Brazil, which are linked to Russia in the BRICS group.
The announcement came from Kiev that Russians would only be allowed to take part in a follow-up summit. And this is only to accept the Ukrainian conditions – which from Moscow’s point of view would be more like a surrender.
Who else should take part?
Switzerland invites heads of state and government from around 100 countries. The government in Bern hopes that around 80 countries will eventually send at least ministers to the meeting on the Bürgenstock. The timing following the G7 summit of leading western industrialized countries in Italy was probably chosen carefully. The top politicians of important countries such as the USA, Canada and Japan will then already be in Europe.
So far, in addition to Ukraine, the USA has agreed. China and other “major powers” have also signaled their approval, as have countries in the global south, said Swiss chief diplomat Cassis. The decision to hold the meeting was made after consultations with countries such as India, South Africa, Brazil, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.
What does Kiev want, what does Moscow want?
In November 2021, Zelenskyj outlined his idea of a just peace in ten points. The core of the theses is a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, the payment of reparations and the conviction of Russian war criminals. Ukraine wants to be able to export food unhindered – that is already largely working – and it is demanding military security guarantees.
After a telephone conversation between Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his French colleague Sébastien Lecornu, Russia repeated its minimum demands. These are demilitarization and neutral status for Ukraine and cession of territory to Russia. For Kyiv, these conditions amount to surrender.
Because Moscow sees itself as being on the winning track militarily, it doesn’t believe it has to negotiate. It would be ridiculous to negotiate “just because they are running out of ammunition,” said Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. His spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Ukraine talks without Russia pointless.
A total of around seven peace plans for Ukraine are known so far, said Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis. The planned conference will not only be based on Zelensky’s peace formula. “We want it to be much broader, so that as many countries as possible are on board the process and thus also open the door for Russia,” he said.
Will China be there and why would that be important?
It is not yet known whether China will actually accept the invitation. According to its foreign office, the People’s Republic supports an international peace conference. However, Russia and Ukraine would have to recognize this, the authority announced this week. Without Moscow, a decisive criterion for China’s participation would not be present.
From the perspective of Western diplomats, it is clear that if China, Russia’s most important ally, does not take part, the summit can hardly be a success. The two countries have lively economic and diplomatic exchanges, which is why observers believe China has great influence on Russia. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is therefore likely to promote China’s participation on his upcoming trip to China at the end of the week.
What do the Chinese suggest?
China published a position paper on political settlement in the conflict in February last year. The list was not a guide to settlement, but rather a list of general positions such as that the principles of the United Nations Charter should be observed. China called on all parties to support direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. Beijing’s proposal was met with criticism, with Ukraine in particular not seeing it as a solution. Observers saw it as China’s attempt to avoid being seen as silent in the conflict.