Sweden’s long road to NATO

The goal of joining NATO is within reach for Sweden. But the road was long and rocky. Turkey is standing in the way, Hungary suddenly wants to clarify something. The hurdles and stations at a glance.

Really no one had any idea what an odyssey would befall Sweden on the way to NATO. Maybe because everything happened so quickly at the beginning: the decision to join the defense alliance came less than three months after the start of the war in Ukraine.

It was a 180-degree turnaround for Swedish society: people were so proud of 200 years of freedom from alliances – until now. But the unexpected war changed Swedish DNA rapidly. Being an independent country and a balancing voice in the world was suddenly no longer so important to many people. They preferred to become part of the large Western defense alliance.

On May 16, 2022, the then Social Democratic Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson appeared in front of the press with opposition leader Ulf Kristersson from the conservative Moderates: “The government has decided that Sweden will inform NATO that we want to become a member.”

June 2022: Sweden fulfills many Turkish wishes

Finland submitted its application at the same time. Most NATO member states ratified the applications immediately. Turkey, however, made demands – and the Nordic countries accommodated Ankara. On the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid in 2022, Sweden and Finland fulfilled many of Turkey’s wishes in a joint memorandum.

They would not support the Kurdish militia YPG in Syria. There will be no arms embargo between the three countries. Finland and Sweden also promised to quickly review the expulsions and extraditions of suspected terrorists demanded by Turkey.

Koran burnings upset Turkey

One working meeting after another followed – sometimes in Ankara, sometimes in Helsinki or Stockholm. The Nordic countries emphasized their progress, but Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was unimpressed for months: “Sweden doesn’t give a good picture. Turkey’s position is clear, they should think about it.”

Sweden adjusted its anti-terror laws to lure Turkey. But then, from the perspective of Swedish NATO negotiators, the GAU happened: Koran burnings in the country, over many months and also in front of the Turkish embassy.

Summer 2023: Türkiye indicates vote

In April 2023, Finland joined NATO on its own and that did not improve Sweden’s negotiating position. But then suddenly there was a ray of hope. On the evening before the start of the NATO summit in Vilnius in the summer of 2023, white smoke rose. At least that’s what the Swedes and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg thought at the time: “I’m happy to say that President Erdogan would like to introduce the Swedish NATO application to parliament as quickly as possible.”

“As quickly as possible”: This formulation contains a certain amount of room for interpretation, something the Swedes had to learn in the coming weeks and months. Meanwhile, right-wing extremists continued to agitate against Islam and set fire to the Holy Scriptures, almost all covered by a far-reaching Swedish freedom of expression law. The anger was great not only in Turkey but throughout the Islamic world and the protests were violent.

“During the night the Swedish embassy in Iraq was stormed and set on fire – in response to an announced burning of the Koran today in front of the Iraqi embassy in Stockholm” – read the news on July 20, 2023.

January 2024: Finally the green light from Ankara

Sweden’s negotiating position did not improve. And at the same time, people in Stockholm suspected that they themselves might not be Turkey’s biggest problem. Because Ankara apparently wanted to link the ratification to another topic: the purchase of F-16 fighter jets from the USA.

Shortly after Ankara finally said “yes” to Sweden’s NATO membership in January, the message from Washington followed: The US government was ready to agree to the sale.

February 2024: The end of Sweden’s NATO odyssey is in sight

But the drama surrounding Sweden’s accession was still not over. The final ratification from Hungary was still missing. Head of state Viktor Orban suddenly demanded talks with the Swedish Prime Minister, only then would Parliament approve accession.

Sweden appeared irritated and initially emphasized that there was no reason for talks. But after some back and forth, Kristersson visited Budapest last Friday. And today the nearly two-year NATO membership odyssey is finally set to come to a positive end from the Swedish government’s perspective.