Opinion poll
People in East Germany believe that Wagenknecht’s party will achieve good results in state elections
People in East Germany are more likely than West Germans to believe that a new party led by Sahra Wagenknecht (photo) will achieve results of over 15 percentage points in the 2024 state elections
© Soeren Stache / DPA
The former left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht wants to found her own party and run with it in the 2024 state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. A Wagenknecht party is given good chances there. People in West Germany are more skeptical.
In the three federal states, voters see good chances for a Wagenknecht party, according to a survey by the opinion research institute Civey on behalf of star resulted.
Almost a third (31 percent) of people in Brandenburg believe that the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance will achieve between five and ten percentage points in the state elections in Brandenburg in 2024. A quarter (25 percent) see a Wagenknecht party below the five percent threshold in the state elections. 19 percent believe that such a party could achieve between 11 and 15 percentage points in the state elections; 16 percent of those surveyed even assume that a Wagenknecht party could achieve more than 15 percentage points.
East Germans are more likely to believe that Wagenknecht’s party will be successful
In the neighboring state of Saxony, the success of a Wagenknecht party in the state elections is seen in a similar way: almost a third (31 percent) of people there believe that the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance will achieve a result of between 5 and 10 percentage points in the state elections in Brandenburg in 2024. 28 percent in Saxony believe that a Wagenknecht party will remain below 5 percent and thus miss out on entry into the state parliament. 17 percent of those surveyed believe that such a party could achieve between 11 and 15 percentage points. 16 percent think it could even be more.
In Thuringia, respondents see an even greater chance of success for a Wagenknecht party: here, too, 31 percent believe that such a party could achieve between 5 and 10 percentage points in the state elections. 20 percent of Thuringians trust a Sahra Wagenknecht alliance with less than 5, 11 to 15 and more than 15 percentage points.
New state parliaments will be elected in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1, 2024, and in Brandenburg on September 22.
Overall, East Germans are more likely to believe that a Wagenknecht party will be successful in the next state elections than West Germans:
17 percent of East Germans believe that a party led by Sahra Wagenknecht could achieve more than 15 percentage points in the state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg, while only 10 percent of those surveyed in West Germany believe this. For Thuringia, even a fifth (20 percent) of respondents in East Germany believe that a Wagenknecht party could achieve more than 15 percentage points, while only 11 percent of respondents in West Germany believe this.
Voters on the left believe that Wagenknecht’s party will achieve high results
The survey also shows that voters of the Greens and the AfD at the federal level in particular see a Wagenknecht party below the five percent threshold in the next state elections. Voters on the left, on the other hand, are much more likely to trust such a party to achieve results of more than 15 percentage points.
Civey interviewed on behalf of the star From October 23rd to October 25th, around 5,000 German citizens aged 18 and over will attend online. The results are representative due to the quotation and weighting, taking into account the statistical error of 2.5 percentage points for the overall result.
The results at the federal state level are based on so-called small area methods. The results are representative taking into account the respective statistical error. This is 5.3 percentage points for Brandenburg, 4.0 percentage points for Saxony and 9.0 percentage points for Thuringia.
All data was collected in Civey’s own panel with verified participants. The results at the federal level are weighted by the official population figures. Regional results below the federal level are also weighted with official population data and are additionally modeled in combination with a comprehensive regional variable set down to the district level using so-called small area methods.