After its losses in the state elections last October, the CSU has made significant gains ahead of the upcoming European elections, according to a new survey. 56 percent of voters want to take part in the election on June 9th, of which 42 percent would vote for the Christian Socials (2019: 40.7), the GMS survey institute found for the “5.30 p.m. SAT.1 Bayern Voter Check”. According to the institute’s representative survey, the AfD would get 17 percent (8.5), the Greens would get 13 percent (19.1) and the Free Voters would get 10 percent (5.3). The SPD would fall to 7 percent (9.3).
44 percent of all respondents consider German membership in the EU to be a good thing, 28 percent are not sure, 24 are skeptical about EU membership. However, 55 percent believe that the European elections are more important than before. According to the survey, if there were a state election in Bavaria next Sunday, the CSU would get 41 percent (actual result in October: 37.0 percent), the Free Voters would get 16 percent (15.8), the AfD would be 14 percent (14. 6), the Greens at 13 percent (14.4). According to the survey, the SPD would only just get over the five percent hurdle with 6 percent (8.4).
Election surveys are always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. According to the survey, a clear majority in Bavaria is dissatisfied with the policies of the traffic light government in Berlin.
77 percent are of the opinion that the federal government cannot solve the problems at hand, 78 percent are dissatisfied with Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). 60 percent assume that the government will not last until the planned end of the legislative period. A different picture emerges in Bavaria: 53 percent are satisfied with the work of the state government, 56 percent consider Markus Söder (CSU) to be a good prime minister. The survey institute surveyed a total of 1,002 people by telephone between December 27, 2023 and January 2, 2024 for the “Voter Check”.