Support for Ukraine: What speaks against direct arms deliveries

In the debate about arms deliveries to Ukraine, a direct delivery of heavy weapons is being discussed. So far, this has not been an issue for the federal government. What are the pros and cons?

The voices calling for the direct delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine are growing louder again. They come from the government factions, above all from the Greens and FDP, and for a long time also from the Union. Since the so-called “ring exchange procedure”, in which Russian-made weapons are delivered from other NATO countries to Ukraine, only works to a limited extent, it should be delivered directly. What are the pros and cons?

Has Germany ever delivered heavy weapons?

Germany has delivered heavy weapons to Ukraine twice so far. However, the quantities are not particularly high so far. In June, the federal government handed over seven Panzerhaubitz 2000 to the Ukraine. Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht also announced at the NATO summit in Madrid that, together with the Netherlands, she would deliver six more models to Ukraine, three of which should come from Germany.

The Panzerhaubitze 2000 looks like a huge tank and is the Bundeswehr’s most modern artillery piece. It can hit targets up to 40 kilometers away and is mainly used behind the front lines.

This also applies to the Mars II multiple rocket launcher. The delivery of three systems to Ukraine was announced here. Most recently, Ukraine also received the first three Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Germany. A total of 30 anti-aircraft systems are to be supplied by German industry to protect Ukrainian cities from air raids. The cheetah was retired from the Bundeswehr more than ten years ago and has been repaired by industry.

In addition to the remaining Cheetah tanks, Ukraine is also waiting for eleven modern Iris-T air defense systems, which it intends to buy from the German defense industry. According to a recent report by “Welt am Sonntag”, this delivery, announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag, could be delayed until the end of the year due to a lack of permits.

What else should the federal government deliver directly?

In Germany, larger, direct deliveries of battle tanks and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine have been discussed for some time. Because the so-called ring exchange procedure, in which Russian-made weapons are delivered to Ukraine by other NATO countries, has so far only worked to a limited extent, takes a long time and has not yet been successfully completed with any country, several members of the Bundestag from the ranks of the Greens and the FDP are calling for it direct delivery of heavy weapons.

This involves deliveries from both the Bundeswehr and industrial stocks. Specifically, it is proposed, for example, that Rheinmetall’s Marder armored personnel carriers be passed on to Ukraine. The armaments company had offered the delivery of up to 100 martens that had been decommissioned and refurbished by the German armed forces. They could exchange rings with other NATO partners or go directly to Ukraine.

According to the chairwoman of the Defense Committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the Bundeswehr would also have enough Marder infantry fighting vehicles to pass on, which could be replaced by industry within a year. Also under discussion for direct deliveries to the Ukraine are the Fuchs armored personnel carrier and the Leopard main battle tank in different versions. They were offered to Ukraine by the industry.

So far, however, the federal government has not decided whether to sell these three tank models from industrial or Bundeswehr stocks. Since the responsible Federal Security Council meets in secret, it is also unclear whether a delivery is even being seriously considered.

Why is the government finding it difficult to supply more heavy weapons?

In principle, the federal government weighs up the delivery of heavy weapons from a bundle of motives. First and foremost is the justification that one acts only in harmony with other partner nations, but not within the NATO structures. Translated, this means that one obviously does not want German battle tanks to be used in the first row against Russian troops and the corresponding images to be able to emerge.

In this context, it has also been stated in the past that Germany and NATO could be made a war party by supplying arms. Even if most security experts do not yet see a corresponding breach of international law in this case, there are fears that the risk of a direct conflict with nuclear power Russia could increase.

In addition, they apparently do not want modern Western weapon systems to fall into Russia’s hands on the battlefield. Taking these considerations into account, the Panzerhaubitzen 2000 and the Gepard tanks that have been delivered, as well as the multiple rocket launchers that have not yet been delivered, fit this requirement profile. They are normally used behind the front lines at a suitable distance, although the Cheetah could theoretically also be used against ground targets.

What role do training and maintenance of the weapon systems play?

In addition to these strategic considerations, there are also logistical reasons why people prefer to use the ring exchange system instead of direct weapon deliveries. Then there is the issue of training. So far, one reason for the exchange of rings was that the Ukrainian soldiers know and can operate the weapon systems of Soviet design. However, this argument becomes increasingly irrelevant as the war progresses and ring exchange negotiations falter, especially since the German armed forces and industry have already trained the Ukrainians on the Panzerhaubitze 2000 and the Gepard anti-aircraft vehicle. As the war progresses, Ukrainian soldiers could also be trained on other Western systems.

Another important issue: A large number of different weapon systems from different countries make maintenance, repairs and spare parts supply all the more difficult, especially since the fitters would also have to be trained and the Ukraine is a large country with long distances. This means that the use of a complex weapon system would only actually make sense from a certain number of units. The government also appears to have doubts that old German-made main battle tanks will give the Ukrainian armed forces the advantage they need on the battlefield. In addition, it is also not clear here whether there are still corresponding spare parts.