The aurora is a fascinating spectacle created by the interaction between particles in the upper atmosphere and the magnetosphere. While a common sight for people in high latitudes, the apparitions are a rarity for others. High levels of activity on the Sun can change that.
Sun more active than expected
There is more to the Aurora than its celestial beauty. It is a complex manifestation of ionospheric dynamics and illustrates the Earth’s deep connection with the Sun. However, this natural event can also bring challenges. In February 2022, a geomagnetic storm triggered by a solar ejection caused 38 Starlink satellites owned by the private space company SpaceX to be withdrawn to Earth due to increased air density.
The activity of the sun is not constant; it is subject to an approximately eleven-year cycle of increased and decreased activity. Surprisingly, the current cycle, the 25th, Daniel Billett, postdoctoral researcher in space physics at the University of Saskatchewan, according to increased activity earlier than expected. That means more geomagnetic storms and, consequently, more vivid auroras.
“Potentially More Hazardous Conditions”
“The 25th solar cycle has now been going on for four years, but it has already proved surprising,” Billett points out. “The maximum activity of the 25th cycle was predicted for the year 2025, but solar activity has already exceeded this value. That means we’ve experienced more geomagnetic storms, more auroras (and at lower latitudes than usual) and potentially more dangerous conditions for LEO satellites.”
However, space weather can also have consequences beyond the visual spectacle of falling satellites. Changes in the ionosphere caused by geomagnetic storms can disrupt long-distance radio communications. In extreme cases, they can even lead to major power outages, as in Quebec in 1989.
Space Weather Forecasts
Thanks to modern instruments such as ground-based radars and magnetometers, scientists can now predict space weather and understand conditions in real time. Yet, as the Starlink incident demonstrates, nature can still catch us off guard, revealing our vulnerability to the cosmic forces around us.
“Nowcasting – using real-time data to understand conditions as they occur – is one of our best tools,” explains the physicist. “With instruments such as ground-based radars and magnetometers on satellites, we can estimate space weather electromagnetic energy entering the atmosphere almost instantly.”
Source: The Conversation
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