It’s over. For the second time in a few months, the Conservatives have shot down their number one. Liz Truss was only in office for 45 days, and she certainly has the title of “prime minister with the shortest term in office”. The Tories have been in complete chaos for the past few days, tumultuous scenes have been playing out in the corridors of Parliament and the live tickers in British newspapers have read more like soap operas than political reporting. Now someone has to be found to replace the truss – and as quickly as possible. The most important questions and answers about the search for a successor.
By when should the successor be decided?
until October 31st should be determined who will be the new British Prime Minister or new Prime Minister. This person is also – almost automatically – the head of the conservative party. Both offices are inextricably linked; that stems from tradition, as does so much in Britain, where there is no written constitution.
until 28th of October the election process must be completed. The Conservatives are keen to avoid things going back to the way they were in the summer. The search for a successor to Boris Johnson dragged on for weeks.
What is the election process like?
When looking for a successor, the so-called 1922 Committee comes into play, actually a group of Tories’ backbenchers, but which is very powerful in the party. Graham Brady, chief of the 1922s, defines the schedule: nominations can be submitted until 2pm UK time next Monday. But there is one tough condition: every person running for party leader must have the Support from at least 100 MPs to have. Since the Conservatives have 355 seats, there can be a maximum of three candidates.
MEPs will then vote on Monday afternoon. Should three people be set up, there is two ballots. The person who received the fewest votes in the first ballot is selected for the second ballot. If only two people stand as candidates from the outset, which observers currently see as more likely, only one ballot is necessary to clarify how the two supporter camps are distributed in the group. No later than 9pm UK time on Monday, it will be announced how MPs have voted.
In the end, however, it is the vote of the party members that counts. you have in one Online voting until Friday 11 a.m Time to decide on one of the two candidates. And they do so knowing how the faction previously voted. The hope of the party leadership is that if the base knows how MPs think, it will have an impact. The result of the member survey will then be communicated in the course of Friday.
Important to know: There will only be a survey of the party base if there are still two candidates in the field. In the event that the MPs gather behind one person, there is no online voting.
Who could succeed Truss?
Immediately after Truss’ resignation, various names circulated in London as to who could apply to be her successor. The former minister Michael Gove was one of the first to decline, followed later by the Minister of the Interior, who took office just a few days ago Grant Shapps. Also the new finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced through his spokeswoman that he would not run for office. The 55-year-old might have had certain chances. Hunt has made a few confident appearances, he has declared Truss’ central campaign promise to cut taxes as factually done, with this statement and his calm, relaxed demeanor he has calmed the situation down a bit – not least on the financial markets.
On the other hand, those who resigned as Interior Minister on Wednesday are seriously considering running for office Suella Braverman and Minister of Commerce Kemi Badenoch, both from the right wing of the party. They are not favourites, others are included.
Rishi Sunak: Apparently he is the most obvious solution, he almost became prime minister once before. The pre-selection in the Tory faction, ie by the House of Commons, won Sunak against Truss; he only lost, albeit narrowly, in the subsequent runoff election by the party base. Many members apparently resented the 42-year-old’s resignation as finance secretary in July, which was a crucial step in the chain reaction that led to Boris Johnson’s resignation as prime minister. In the internal party struggle to find his successor, Sunak warned of his rival Truss’ plans: her tax reform could have dire consequences on the financial markets. History has proved him right, perhaps a further argument for him.
Boris Johnson: Is it crazy that the Prime Minister, who was only ousted by his party in the summer, could now be about to make a comeback? Not crazy enough for UK politics. The 58-year-old seems to be considering it and his chances wouldn’t be the worst. The man who made it to the top in his country with the Brexit campaign is the favorite of the party base – despite all the lies and scandals that ended up costing him office. Johnson, the argument goes, is the only candidate to have won a majority of British votes in an election. Apparently many party friends are now urging him to run again; warn others it could tear the party apart.
Penny Mordaunt: The Brexit advocate has already held various posts in the cabinet, including being defense secretary for a few months under Johnson. She is currently sitting there as “Leader of the House”. Mordaunt, whose real name is Penelope, was last in the running for Johnson’s successor with Sunak and Truss, but narrowly missed out on the runoff. Most recently she defended the government of Liz Truss. On Thursday evening, journalists in London reported that Mordaunt was probing the party to decide whether or not to run again.
Ben Wallace: He is the British Defense Secretary, as he was in the previous government. And he’s popular: he was recently ranked third in Tory polls asking who should succeed Truss. But would he try? Earlier this year, Wallace said he didn’t want to be prime minister but wanted to focus on the job of secretary of defense.
What are the polls like?
A poll a few days ago showed a majority for Johnson among party members. Betting agencies, on the other hand, see Sunak as a favourite. On Thursday, the ITV broadcaster published a survey that was not very pleasant for the conservatives: “Who would be the best prime minister?” asked the pollsters. Virtually every Tory candidate standing (Wallace was not polled) is significantly less popular with voters than the opposition Labor Party’s Keir Starmer. In some polls, Labor is 39 percentage points ahead of the Tories – a larger gap between the two major parties has never been measured. Fearing a crushing defeat, the Conservatives will do their best to avoid new elections.
However, who knows how things are developing these days in Great Britain?