Succession in North Rhine-Westphalia: Laschet’s second delicate mission

Laschet is fighting for political survival at the federal level. On the other hand, his days as Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia are definitely numbered. Before he leaves, he wants to arrange his successor. A mission with high risks.

Armin Laschet will soon be history in North Rhine-Westphalia. The Prime Minister is leaving, it is just not yet clear when exactly. At some point it will hang on the wall as a painting on the third floor of the State Chancellery on the banks of the Rhine: in oil, like its predecessors.

But the time has not come yet. First there is still a Herculean task waiting for the man, whose taker qualities the whole republic was able to get an idea of ​​this year. Of whose governance one can only report on the Rhine. The job that is now waiting for him could be the last great service to his party: arranging his succession and averting another political disaster from the CDU.

Laschet takes the reins in his hand

Laschet’s future in Berlin hangs by a thread, but at the same time he is taking the reins in Düsseldorf. In the next few days he wants to speak to everyone who is hopeful of his successor. Then he wants to submit a proposal to the state executive, i.e. the party. The parliamentary group in the state parliament has already assured that it will then adopt this proposal as its own. So the way would be free.

Favorite desert

Laschet’s problem: there are several who have developed ambitions. Hendrik Wüst (46), the regional transport minister, has long been a favorite. Wüst is considered a political talent, but during his time as Secretary General under Prime Minister Jürgen Rüttgers he not only made friends. That was many years ago now and Wüst has learned from the mistakes made back then, when he was sometimes rowdy and not very stylish.

He now has government experience and is well networked in the party. He can also campaign. It is considered conservative, but modern, would represent a generation change. The opposition should look forward to Wüst: They are just waiting to warm up the old stories again, even if they can hardly expect any public praise for their originality. What speaks for Wüst: He has a mandate in the state parliament, which in North Rhine-Westphalia is a mandatory prerequisite for being able to be elected Prime Minister at all.

Scharrenbach with ambitions

Ina Scharrenbach (45), currently Minister for Construction and Home Affairs, also has political ambitions. In the past few years she has earned a reputation as a meticulous, hardworking and fact-based minister. It is said to amaze even experts at times, so much is it in the details. However, she renounced her state parliament mandate in 2017 and would have to hope that the party would make her the top candidate for the state elections in the coming year without an official bonus. That is unlikely, because the CDU will hardly want to do without this important advantage.

Draft horse Reul

This also applies to Herbert Reul (69), the interior minister. The experienced and powerful puller has raised his profile in the fight against the country’s criminals. Without question, he is one of the most popular CDU politicians in the country. But he has no mandate. His public appearances are legendary, when he speaks as if he spent a lot of time looking at the people’s mouths. Sentences are so casual that he has to backtrack, for example when, after a court ruling, he recommended that judges listen more to the people’s sense of justice. His unorthodox style makes Reul a brand and certainly also a draft horse for his party. His political promotion would be a generation change – albeit in the wrong direction for many.

Group leader Löttgen

It has never really become clear whether Bodo Löttgen (62), the head of the parliamentary group, had his own ambitions for higher posts. It is known, however, that he has no particular affection for Wüst. In his parliamentary group office, according to reports, quite adventurous strategy games have been developed in a small circle, how Wüst could be prevented if necessary. Some of it has since been shelved. The sometimes angular Löttgen is needed as a parliamentary group leader. Finally, observers were able to get an idea of ​​how he clearly pushed through the cross and slipped into the role of the doer who organizes and secures majorities. Then he is in his element.

Only one vote majority

It is piquant that the coalition of CDU and FDP only has a majority vote in the state parliament. So everyone has to participate if the election is not to become a disgrace at the first attempt. So far, black and yellow have ruled Düsseldorf with this extremely small majority so easily that it is almost astonishing. But now, of all times, when it comes to the choice of the Laschet successor, doubts are being cast from within their own ranks as to whether the majority really stands. A more than transparent and questionable maneuver. But now everyone knows that the parliamentary group does not seem to dare to cross the road. It cannot be ruled out that there might still be someone among the MPs with a lot of frustration and enthusiasm for self-destruction. The result would be a total political loss in the end.

Most expect desert

The challenge for the party chief diplomat Laschet will now be to find the one solution that everyone expects from him: a person who can become prime minister, party leader and top candidate. So all power in one hand. Almost everyone in the state CDU reckons that the proposal can ultimately only be wasteful. For the others, it is reportedly a matter of driving up the prices for their waiver. The art will be not to damage anyone in the end and to keep everyone on board.

Target state election 2022

If the state elections in May 2022 are not to become a debacle, the CDU needs everyone. Above all, she knows that she must appear united and not indulge in quarrels or open arguments. At best, the Düsseldorf journalists like that, the electorate certainly not. The sting of having been voted out of office after only one legislative period is still deep in the NRW CDU. This is exactly what happened in 2010, after only five years the conservatives were chased back into the desert by the voters, the lamentation was great at the time. For heaven’s sake, that shouldn’t happen again next year.

After the failure of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Angela Merkel decided not to arrange her successor. The result is known. Laschet has the chance to do better now.