It is considered divided, and in surveys the traffic light coalition is reaching lows – but compared to the coalition agreement, a study confirms that it has a respectable half-time balance. Almost two thirds of the projects have been implemented or tackled.
The traffic light coalition has been in power for almost two years now – and according to a study, the half-time results are impressive compared to the implementation of their coalition agreement. Almost two thirds of the projects have either been implemented or tackled, according to the analysis prepared by the Bertelsmann Foundation together with the University of Trier and the think tank “Das Progressive Zentrum”. However, the public perception of it as a “dispute coalition” is rather negative.
For their analysis, the authors counted a total of 453 promises in the coalition agreement and checked the respective status of implementation. The result: 174 promises have already been fully or partially fulfilled (38 percent). In addition, a further 55 projects (twelve percent) are in the process of being fulfilled. A further 62 promises (14 percent) have been “substantially addressed”, but the extent to which they have been fulfilled cannot yet be predicted. In contrast, there are 162 promises (36 percent) from the contract between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP that were neither fulfilled nor addressed.
“More publicly staged coalition dispute”
Foundation author Robert Vehrkamp said that a “very promising” mid-term review was overshadowed by “publicly staged coalition disputes and many open construction sites.” In contrast to a comparatively high level of implementation, the traffic lights are seen by many as a “dispute coalition”.
An additional survey showed that only twelve percent of people in Germany believe that “all, almost all or a large part” of the agreed coalition promises have been implemented. On the other hand, 43 percent of those surveyed believe that only “a small part or hardly any” of the promises will be realized.
For the survey, the Allensbach Institute interviewed 1,011 people aged 16 and over personally and orally on behalf of the foundation in July. Only about a quarter of those surveyed were satisfied with the coalition’s work. More than 60 percent were “somewhat or very” dissatisfied. What is striking is “how little most people differentiate between the three government parties,” said Vehrkamp. Most people see and judge the traffic light as a unit.
A good 50 percent more promises than the grand coalition
For the analysis, the research team examined “real” promises in the coalition agreement, the fulfillment of which could be verified using clear criteria. Compared to the mid-term balance of the previous government, the traffic light has already fulfilled fewer promises, at 38 instead of 53 percent, the study says – but in absolute terms, with 174 instead of 154 promises fulfilled, it has actually achieved a little more.
This is because the traffic light government’s coalition agreement contains a total of 453 “real” government promises – a good 50 percent more than the 296 promises of the grand coalition in the 2018 coalition agreement. Compared to the 2013 coalition agreement with 188 promises, the current coalition has almost two and a half times so many government projects agreed.
“The large number of promises reflects, on the one hand, the complexity of the traffic light as a cross-camp coalition of three programmatically independent parties, but on the other hand also the higher level of ambition of the traffic light agreement,” explained Theres Matthieß from the University of Trier, co-author of the study.
Political expert Wolfgang Schröder from the “Progressive Center” said that the publicly staged coalition dispute led to the actual government performance and implementation fidelity being underestimated. “That’s why the traffic light needs a new start in its internal coalition cooperation and self-portrayal.”
Opposition from the opposition
The parliamentary secretary of the Union parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei (CDU), contradicted the positive findings of the study. The traffic light seems to want to “work through its outdated coalition agreement unimpressed by reality,” he said. “It now completely ignores people’s central issues. The disappointment and frustration of the population is understandable.”
Bertelsmann Foundation
Addressing social challenges and having a lasting impact on society – that is, according to the Bertelsmann Foundation’s own statement, the goal. It was founded in 1977 by the Gütersloh-based entrepreneur Reinhard Mohn, then head of the Bertelsmann media group. According to the group, the foundation now holds more than 80 percent of the shares in Bertelsmann Verlag, which includes the RTL Group and Penguin Random House, among others.
For its studies, the foundation collects and analyzes data and ultimately makes recommendations for action to decision-makers. It works operationally, which means it does not support the work of third parties, but rather invests exclusively in self-initiated projects. According to its own statements, it serves the common good and is committed to the highest level of neutrality.
However, this neutrality has often been questioned in the past. Former SPD politician Albrecht Müller accused the Bertelsmann think tank of one-sidedly representing a neoliberal ideology and the interests of business. The journalist Harald Schumann analyzed that this would be reflected in the foundation’s relevant recommendations, which often aimed to design the areas of life examined more closely according to market economy competition criteria.
In addition, the foundation’s field of activity goes far beyond an advisory function, accused Frank Böckelmann, journalist and author of a book about the Bertelsmann Group. The foundation would have a direct influence on politics through targeted agreements.
However, the foundation denies any direct influence. “Our aim is to present studies that are technically and methodologically unassailable, and we can do that. But we also always have a clear standpoint from which we make suggestions based on the study results. We have no idea whether politicians will follow our suggestions influence,” explains Andreas Muhs, communications manager at the Bertelsmann Foundation.