The global economy could collapse by a fifth due to climate change. Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warn about this in a new study. This would also have consequences for employees.
According to a new calculation, the global economy is at risk of shrinking by around a fifth by the middle of the century as a result of global warming – even if emissions of climate-damaging gases were drastically reduced in the future.
Otherwise, much greater economic damage than $38 trillion per year can be expected, according to researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). in a study published today in the high-profile science journal Nature have calculated.
This damage would be six times higher than the estimated costs for climate protection measures to limit global warming to a maximum of two degrees, write the PIK authors.
German economy could shrink by eleven percent
Depending on the region, the expected damage varies greatly. The poorest countries and those least responsible for climate change will be hit hardest, the study says. For Germany – as for the USA – the researchers predict that the economy will shrink by eleven percent by the middle of the century, compared to a scenario without climate impacts.
The information refers to a scenario in which it is possible to get on a path that can limit global warming to below two degrees by the end of the century. According to the United Nations, the current climate protection plans are not yet sufficient.
Height Loss of income predicted
The consequences could then also affect employees: “High income losses are forecast for most regions, including North America and Europe, with South Asia and Africa being most affected,” writes Maximilian Kotz, one of the study authors.
“These losses are caused by a wide range of economically relevant impacts of climate change, such as impacts on agricultural yields, labor productivity or infrastructure.” Damage from storms or forest fires is not included, but could further increase the total.
Damage is already caused by the greenhouse gases that have been emitted so far
For the calculation, the researchers evaluated data from the past 40 years from more than 1,600 regions on how extreme weather events have influenced economic growth. Based on climate models, they calculated how these are likely to have an economic impact over the next 26 years.
Researcher Leonie Wenz pointed out that the expected damage was the result of the greenhouse gases that had already been emitted. In order to cushion this, adjustment measures are needed. “In addition, we must reduce our CO2 emissions drastically and immediately – otherwise the economic losses will be even higher in the second half of the century and reach a global average of up to 60 percent by the end of the century,” said Wenz.
Comparable forecasts were already made in 2006
The Potsdam team’s current calculations are close to the almost 20-year-old forecasts made by economist Nicholas Stern on behalf of the British government. In the so-called Stern Report from 2006, he predicted that climate change would threaten the international economy with a decline of around 20 percent.