study
The center is increasingly losing trust in established parties
According to a study, Merz (from left), Scholz, Habeck and Lindner are losing trust in the middle of society. photo
© Kay Nietfeld/dpa
The German middle class has become more susceptible to populism, shows a study by the Bertelsmann Foundation. Excessive bureaucracy and a backlog of innovation therefore contribute to strengthening the margins.
Trust in the established parties has recently fallen significantly in the middle of society. This is according to an investigation by the Bertelsmann Foundation is particularly interested in the fact that people with middle incomes feel a great deal of pressure to change on the one hand, but on the other hand do not have the impression that the traffic light coalition is setting the right course for this.
According to the authors of the study, Robert Vehrkamp and Silke Borgstedt, the fact that the Union has so far only benefited to a limited extent from this skepticism in voter surveys indicates that confidence in the parties of the old Bonn Republic is generally dwindling in these milieus.
Neither the SPD, Greens and FDP nor the CDU and CSU are currently managing to “leave the impression of empathy, problem-solving ability and responsiveness in the middle in order to immunize their electorate against populist seduction and mobilization,” according to the current study. The analysis is based on four representative surveys between September 2021 and the end of February 2024.
Optimism is fading
In an online survey in January of this year, 56 percent of the German population, which pollsters classify as being in the middle of society, said they were rather optimistic about the future. For comparison: In May 2022, 66 percent of those surveyed expressed optimism. According to the study, this is true even though current life satisfaction in the middle remains quite high.
The people described by the researchers as a “nostalgic middle class” feel pressured by constant appeals for change. They tried to defend familiar rules against “perceived impositions of the ecological zeitgeist.” But the “adaptive-pragmatic” middle, which is willing to change, is also dissatisfied because “the innovation backlog, the stalled digitalization, the sprawling bureaucracy” and the shortage of skilled workers are causing them problems.
Both milieus involve a search for harmony, predictability and security of prosperity, as well as the perception that one’s own concerns are not being seen.
Debt brake versus more investment
A majority of people with middle incomes would find it okay to take on more debt, but only on the condition that this money would be used for future-oriented investments such as schools, local public transport or better climate protection. This is not a general vote for easing the debt brake.
According to the data, 73 percent of those surveyed agreed that it is better to borrow money today so as not to leave the young generation with broken schools, broken roads and a broken environment. Only 27 percent of participants in the survey last February supported the statement that leaving the children with as little national debt as possible was more important.
What does this mean for the 2025 federal election?
A lot can still change between now and the next federal election, which is expected to take place in autumn 2025. The Bertelsmann Foundation calculates what party preferences currently look like in the two different centrist milieus. According to this, only 17 percent of the “nostalgic bourgeois” supported the traffic light parties at the end of February.
28 percent would vote for the CDU and CSU, 34 percent for the AfD and 9 percent for Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party (BSW). In the case of the “adaptive-pragmatic middle” that is willing to change, the traffic light would come to 26 percent, the Union to 30 percent, and the AfD to 27 percent. The BSW would only get four percent here if there were a federal election now.