Figures from the Federal Statistical Office suggest that Germany continues to import large quantities of Russian oil via India. Imports from India have multiplied.
Will larger quantities of Russian oil reach Germany via a detour through India? Current data from the Federal Statistical Office could be interpreted as follows: Imports of petroleum products from India increased more than twelvefold in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period last year, as the Wiesbaden authority announced today. According to the UN, India, in turn, purchases large quantities of crude oil from Russia.
The imports from India were “mainly gas oils that are used to produce diesel or heating oil,” the statisticians said. India then produces these gas oils from crude oil, which the country has been purchasing in large quantities from Russia since the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.
The increase is significant: in the first seven months of this year, petroleum products from India worth 451 million euros were imported to Germany. That was 2.4 percent of all German imports of mineral oil products in this period. In the same period last year it was only 37 million euros.
“Probably Russian”
Georg Zachmann from the Bruegel think tank in Brussels told the AFP news agency about the development of oil imports from India that it was “very plausible that Germany and other European countries are implicitly buying Russian oil.” As soon as a direct trade route is blocked, the market is able to “balance it indirectly”. Even if the exact origin of the crude oil is “concealed,” it is “probably Russian.”
Zachmann also believes it is “unlikely” that the EU embargo will “significantly reduce” Russian oil exports. Regarding the price cap, the expert said that since Russia exports very large quantities of oil overall, “its income remains very high.”
Does the price cap work?
Because of the war, Germany stopped its direct imports of oil from Russia. The Western states have also introduced a price cap for Russian oil, which they want to enforce internationally using their market power in the shipping and insurance sectors. However, this mechanism is reportedly not working as planned. The main problem is checking compliance by the authorities.
The G7 states, the EU and Australia agreed last year that no more than $60 should be paid for Russian oil. This should be enforced internationally with the help of the market power of the industrialized countries in the areas of shipping companies and insurance companies. They should undertake to no longer transport Russian oil purchased at higher prices.
However, according to research by the KSE Institute of the Kyiv School of Economics, Russian oil was sold at significantly higher prices in the country’s most important export ports, most recently for more than $70 per barrel. The regulation devised by Western countries can only work “if governments credibly demonstrate to companies that they will enforce it,” Benjamin Hilgenstock from the KSE Institute told “Spiegel”.