New state parliaments will be elected in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in autumn. The three parties that govern Germany have some catastrophic poll results. What does that mean?
This can end bitterly for the traffic lights. A good five months before the important state elections in East Germany, the AfD is number one in polls there. At the same time, the federal government is threatened with a debacle.
In Thuringia and Saxony, the SPD recently got 6 percent in Insa surveys, the Greens were at 5 percent in both states and the FDP at 2 percent. Does the east end the traffic light? And who then governs with whom in the countries? As of today, hardly anyone can say that. But today is not election day yet. And the situation in the individual countries is nevertheless different.
the initial situation
The state parliaments in Thuringia and Saxony will be elected on September 1st, followed by Brandenburg on September 22nd. As a reminder, the key points: In Thuringia, the only Prime Minister of the Left, Bodo Ramelow, is in coalition with the SPD and the Greens. Both were so weak at the last election in 2019 (8.2 percent for the SPD and 5.2 percent for the Greens) that it was only enough to form a minority government. The FDP managed exactly 5 percent.
In the 2019 election in Saxony, the SPD only received 7.7 percent and the Greens 8.6 percent, but both also govern, there under CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer. The FDP is not in the state parliament. This also applies to Brandenburg. Five years ago, the SPD was the strongest party there with 26.2 percent. Your Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke is in a coalition with the CDU and the Greens. Roughly speaking, the SPD is fighting for government office in Brandenburg and for survival in the other two states. The Greens are weak but reasonably stable in all three countries. The FDP is in the death zone.
“The Difference Between Survival and Extinction”
Party researcher Sven Leunig from the University of Jena finds the weakness of the traffic light parties hardly surprising: “It’s no secret: the permanent discord between the three parties in the federal government has an impact on the state parties.” State elections are also traditionally an opportunity to punish those in power. “It has always been the case that government parties at the federal level perform worse at the state level,” explains the political scientist. Compared to the previous elections, the traffic light parties did not fall dramatically. “But especially in the case of the FDP, two percentage points make the crucial difference between survival and extinction.”
As a party, the FDP cannot find any real issues in the East and is struggling as an extra-parliamentary opposition in Saxony and Brandenburg. And the SPD and the Greens also have their own problems. The East German-born author Sabine Rennefanz recalled in “Spiegel” how the SPD once alienated supporters with Hartz IV and Ich-AGs. The party is only hesitantly tackling issues such as equal wages in East and West.
Despite their role in the peaceful revolution of 1989 in the East, Alliance 90/The Greens have traditionally had a difficult time. According to a recent survey commissioned by the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”, they are perceived by many as aloof and eager to regulate – keyword heating law. Green federal ministers like Robert Habeck in particular have recently been booed in the East, whether by angry farmers or peace-loving opponents of arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Expectations are low
The Green Party’s political director, Emily Büning, is nevertheless confident. Your party has gained many new members in the past few weeks, including in the east. Their goal: “The autumn elections are about ensuring that democratic majorities and thus stable governments can be formed without the AfD.”
The SPD, which is the only party currently in government in all five eastern German states and Berlin, certainly shares this goal. It could stay that way – provided the SPD overcomes the five percent hurdle. She seems to be resigned to single-digit election results in Saxony and Thuringia. They are not well positioned in small towns and villages, SPD chief strategist Kevin Kühnert recently admitted.
The FDP, which has recently suffered a series of election defeats, has deliberately set expectations for the eastern German states low. Before the European elections on June 9th, the Liberals are concentrating on strengthening top candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and stabilizing themselves above five percent nationwide.
Always nice to keep a distance in the election campaign
There is hardly any tailwind from Berlin for the election campaigners in the East – the only option they have is to keep as far as possible from the traffic lights. Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Woidke is leading the way and criticizing, for example, the approach to the heating law and the cuts for farmers. “This public dispute that is going on at the federal level is destroying democracy,” Woidke raged at the beginning of the year.
Thuringia’s SPD leader Georg Maier is in the same vein. “I would like to see fewer headlines about internal conflicts,” says the Social Democrat. The Thuringian designated FDP top candidate Thomas Kemmerich, on the other hand, has been at loggerheads with his parent party for a long time – since his surprise election as Prime Minister in 2020 with votes from the AfD. Kemmerich resigned, but still lost support from Berlin. He doesn’t find it difficult to criticize the traffic lights: the way things are done in Berlin conveys “no competence and no trust,” he says. He still believes that on the day of the state elections, people will look more closely at Thuringia than at Berlin.
The Thuringian Green Party’s top candidate Madeleine Henfling also complains about the “blockade” in the traffic lights, for example when it comes to basic child welfare, the Democracy Promotion Act or climate money. In Saxony, SPD top candidate Petra Köpping told the “Tagesspiegel” in January: “The survey results cannot be justified in terms of state politics.” This reflects the mood in Saxony towards the traffic lights.
Autumn is far away
Given the current situation, the FDP actually has to hope for a miracle. But everything is open for the SPD and the Greens: They could be kicked out of Saxony and Thuringia in the fall – or they could move back into government. They could play an important role as a coalition option. The AfD could become number one in both countries, but could not find a partner. If the CDU is number two, it will probably try to put together centrist coalitions.
On the other hand, it is simply too early to forecast autumn. “Sentiments are not votes,” says Dresden political scientist Hans Vorländer about the situation in Saxony. Above all, the new Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) is a big unknown. “Nobody can currently say exactly how many votes from which parties will go to the BSW,” says Vorländer. The BSW was recently at 11 percent in surveys in Saxony and even at 15 percent in Thuringia.
It is also uncertain whether and how the elections in the east will influence the traffic lights in Berlin. Will she pull herself together in the near future and deliver positive messages? That could definitely stabilize the SPD, Greens and FDP, says party researcher Leunig. The other way around: If there really is a debacle, will the traffic lights switch off early for new federal elections? Doubtful. So far, after every low point, things have continued to move forward.