After the bankruptcy in Saarland (an absolute majority for the SPD), the CDU can now hope for an electoral success in Schleswig-Holstein.
In the second state election of the year, Prime Minister Daniel Günther (48) is the big favorite. In the last survey (ZDF on Thursday), the coastal CDU is far ahead of the SPD and the Greens (18 percent each) with 38 percent.
The FDP (8 percent) and AfD (6 percent) should also be represented in the state parliament. The left is given no chance.
A special feature in the north is the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (6 percent). The 5 percent hurdle does not apply to the party of the Danish minority.
Paradox: Prime Minister Günther is so popular that there should be a new government in Kiel. If the polls are correct, the CDU man no longer needs the Greens and FDP for a majority, but only a partner.
Means: CDU federal leader Friedrich Merz (66) can probably go into the most important election of the year next Sunday in North Rhine-Westphalia with a tailwind.
There, the CDU and SPD are almost equal, red-green has the chance to replace black-yellow.