North Rhine-Westphalia expects a camp election campaign. Of course, each party runs its own campaign until May 15th, Germany’s most important election Sunday this year. But an analysis of the party programs of the CDU and FDP, the SPD and the Greens reveals that there are two opposite poles on the Rhine and Ruhr – black-yellow versus red-green. If there is no two-party coalition after the election, there is a risk of lengthy, tough negotiations in Düsseldorf.
Political scientists from the University of Münster have proven this bipolar order. For her “election compass” they presented all parties with 30 theses – and compared their answers on Tempo 30, debt and flight bans as well as wolves or housing with statements in their election programs. From now on, citizens can ease the agony of their choice by answering the theses of the election compass online using a self-test – and then see which party is closest to them.
The voters still have almost four weeks to make their decision – but the parties have secured their positions. Overall, the goals and promises of the previous governing coalition of CDU and FDP agree at 82.3 percent (top graphic). The previous opposition in Düsseldorf is similarly unanimous: the SPD and the Greens even give 91.8 percent of the same answers to the 30 Compass theses. At the same time, both camps are programmatically further apart than they were in the autumn before the federal elections: “The gap between black-yellow and red-green is bigger in NRW than at the federal level,” says Jan Philipp Thomeczek, the project manager of the election compass .
Norbert Kersting, Professor of Comparative Politics in Münster, is not surprised by this dichotomy. Above all, the once-large parties, the CDU and SPD, have traditional and geographically separate milieus: the CDU dominates in Münster and Sauerland, while the SPD has for decades considered the Ruhr region to be the “heart chamber”. This has consequences, according to Kersting: “The party-political charge and the confrontation between the CDU and SPD still has a stronger effect in NRW than in other federal states, from the local level to state politics.” Large coalitions are “hardly conceivable” in the most populous country.
Either red-green or black-yellow has ruled in NRW for 27 years. Changing partners is difficult, this time too: SPD and FDP (55.4 percent) or CDU and Greens (52.0 percent) only agree on about half of the election compass theses.
According to polls, Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst’s black-yellow coalition has no chance of governing alone again after May 15. It could be just enough for red-green – but many voters have not yet decided. And black and green are worlds apart. Many observers suspect that a tripartite alliance will be necessary in the future for a stable government majority. So traffic light or Jamaica?
The analysis of the election compass at least gives indications of how a political menage a trois most likely to succeed. In order to build up the necessary trust and a minimum consensus for an NRW traffic light, according to the political scientists, Red, Green and Yellow should first discuss social issues (e.g. legalization of cannabis, lowering the voting age), immigration (e.g. Islam lessons in schools) or also about Negotiate internal security issues (electric shock guns for the police, data protection). As the middle graphic shows, this is where the FDP and the Greens have the greatest agreement with the SPD (well over 80 percent). Explosives, on the other hand, lurk in financial and economic issues – the SPD and FDP would find it difficult to get together (bottom graphic).
The scientists from Münster recommend exactly the opposite way for black-green experiments or for Jamaica: Compromises with the Greens were easier to find on issues such as trade tax, the opening of shops on Sundays or childcare. On the other hand, topics such as internal security or immigration would be pure poison for a rapprochement between the CDU and the Greens. Spoiled for choice – in Dusseldorf it lurks even after May 15th.