analysis
Status: 05/16/2022 06:37 a.m
In North Rhine-Westphalia, not only was a state government voted out, but the old camp thinking. Whether black and green or traffic lights – the next government in NRW will be a novelty.
And again a state government in North Rhine-Westphalia has been voted out. There have been four changes in the past 16 years, always going back and forth between black-yellow and red-green.
But now, for the first time, the old camps have broken up. CDU with FDP is deselected, SPD and Greens without a majority. Mathematically possible are black-green or the traffic light – both a novelty in the most populous federal state. Or as the political scientist Martin Florack put it: “The old Bonn Republic also came to an end in Düsseldorf.”
Election winner number 1: Hendrik Wüst
After the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, there was speculation as to whether there was a “Merz effect” on the election. After the election in North Rhine-Westphalia, one will probably have to think about a “Wüst effect”.
When asked about the federal level, Wüst answered on the evening of the election, pointing out that he had “received a lot of support from all over Germany” and that “decisive issues were state-political”. This could also be translated very loosely as a challenge to the Federal Chairman Friedrich Merz not to adopt the Wüst electoral success.
Wüst cannibalizes Merkel-style liberals
How Wüst acted in a friendly manner on the outside, but acted harshly on the matter, shows that, in Merkel-style, he has claimed the successes of the coalition partner FDP for himself in the past few weeks. The voted-out Vice Prime Minister Joachim Stamp, who took responsibility for the poor performance, also accused Wüst of “partially adorning himself with feathers from our successes”. As examples he named the “unleashing policy” of Economics Minister Andreas Pinkwart (FDP) and the talent schools in North Rhine-Westphalia. “You have to realize that our coalition partner didn’t show much consideration during the election campaign,” said Stamp.
A look at the voter migration shows that Wüst was successful: the largest migration with 260,000 votes went from the FDP to the CDU.
On the evening of the election, apart from dutiful thanks, Wüst found no word of regret about the poor performance of his coalition partner. Instead, he flirts with the Greens and emphasizes that it is now a matter of “reconciling climate protection and industrialized countries”. Can he win them over to a government? And how will he deal with them?
Green did everything right
With their all-time high of more than 18 percent, the Greens in NRW have the best prerequisites for being very self-confident in negotiations. Often mocked as the “poll world champion”, this time they not only managed to match the good results of the pre-election polls, but even to surpass them.
You did everything right during the election campaign: long before the election, the parliamentary group chairmanship was changed completely silently and surprisingly for everyone. With Verena Schäffer and Josefine Paul, the next generation took over. Just as silently, the co-state chairwoman Mona Neubaur was suddenly presented as the top candidate. And only as a top candidate and not as a candidate for prime minister. The Greens were aiming for a realistic election goal and were able to concentrate on factual issues instead of a person-centred election campaign for Neubaur, who has had no government experience to date.
Remarkable was a pre-election poll in which Neubaur’s awareness value was lower than the trust value in her person. This is only possible if there is a strong party behind the candidate. And issues such as climate protection and mobility fit the brand essence of the party and its clientele.
In addition, the NRW Greens not only had tailwind from Berlin, but a real storm from behind. Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck have been leading the ranking of the most popular politicians for weeks, well ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Merz and Christian Lindner.
Kuchaty’s bite inhibition
SPD top candidate Thomas Kutschaty also relied on the tailwind from Berlin, but the breeze blowing from the Willy Brandt House and the Chancellery to North Rhine-Westphalia was as indecisive as Scholz’s allegations of hesitation in Ukraine politics. With the large-scale posters that showed Kutschaty and Scholz and were used in the final sprint, the NRW-SPD had hoped that more glamor from Berlin would rub off on the top candidates.
The Social Democrats’ campaign strategy has failed. It basically consisted of not attacking the prime minister. In the TV duel, which was perceived by many as a duet, even as an exploration for a GroKo, the challenger missed the opportunity to present himself as a real alternative to the incumbent. In doing so, he showed often enough in the state parliament how aggressive and biting he can be.
Stamp in the shadow of the great chairman
The voted-out Vice Prime Minister, FDP top candidate Joachim Stamp, would certainly have been happy to receive support from Berlin. But the federal chairman Lindner, who dominates the party, is now making the policy as finance minister, which he previously rhetorically demonized from the opposition. And Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing caused ridicule because he rejected a speed limit, saying that there weren’t enough traffic signs. A speed limit that all 16 state transport ministers recently demanded. Wissing’s food porn bashing was also laughed at on social media.
Within the NRW state association, Stamp did not manage to step out of the shadow of his predecessor Lindner. Which isn’t just Stamp’s fault. The last state party conference of the NRW Liberals before the election was symptomatic. At this virtual event, a Lindner from Berlin spoke twice as long as the top candidate Stamp.
NRW and its chancellor candidates
Anyone who has power in NRW also wants it in the federal government – that’s the expectation that has prevailed in Düsseldorf for decades. Although so far all Prime Ministers who wanted to conquer the Chancellery from NRW have failed: both Armin Laschet (CDU) and before him the Social Democrats Peer Steinbrück and Johannes Rau. When Hannelore Kraft (SPD) said she never, ever wanted to go to Berlin, the CDU and FDP opposition at the time sneered at “self-dwarfing”. Kraft unnecessarily curtailed its power over federal politics.
That will not happen to Wust. He will keep all options open – and thus become tough competition for the Sauerland Merz. Both serve the same conservative profile, although Wüst, at 46, is significantly younger and has successfully scored points with the important over-60 electorate. Wüst likes to show himself pushing a pram as a young father. Probably nobody who is interested in politics in NRW does not know the nickname “Pippa” of his daughter, who was born in 2021, he mentions her too often.
Even if the next federal election is still a long way off, it is conceivable that the conservative libertine and the more left-liberal Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Günther, will compete for the Union’s chancellor candidacy. In contrast to Merz, both can use the pound of re-election in an important government office. And both could recommend themselves to stand for new coalitions: Günther for Jamaica and if Wüst successfully explores with the Greens, he could recommend Black-Green for the federal government. The fact that the traffic light in the federal government is now under pressure due to the election result in NRW – that also strengthens Wüst. He will not only be expected in Düsseldorf.