There is no shortage of one thing this Sunday: confidence. The Greens meet for a small party conference in a theater in Munich’s Werksviertel. Modern inventory, everything perfectly lit, the entrance music for the top duo Katharina Schulze and Ludwig Hartmann, for the Bavarian party leadership and the traveling federal leader Omid Nouripour, the pop song “Unstoppable” is unstoppable. Well, you can ignore the Porsche that appears in the text, presumably a petrol engine. But otherwise the lines are full of fighting spirit: strong, powerful, invincible. The delegates practically cheer, then Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock makes her own appearance, walking down a flight of stairs. She says she’s only been to the USA. “I thought there was an election campaign going on there. It’s crazy with you!” And: “Something is really possible” for the Greens in this state election. An undauntedly optimistic sign a week before election day. Was what?
It is also the end of an election campaign that was as unfriendly to the Greens as they are now being as optimistic as possible. In Berlin, all the traffic light frustration, the heating law, the Graichen affair, all no tailwind. In the Free State, Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) denied them the “Bavarian gene” and chose them as the main opponents, and not the AfD. His deputy Hubert Aiwanger (FW) even said: “The best way to fight the AfD is to slow down the Greens.” Everyone was against the Greens, that was often the impression in the past few months. However, it was also the impression that when it came to pillars of the broad attitude to life in Bavaria – owning your own home, car, roast pork – they sailed unerringly past the mood in the country.
At the beginning of the year, the Greens were polling at 18 percent, clearly the second strongest force; The survey values have been roughly constant since 2018, so one could definitely assume that there was a core support base in the Free State. Hartmann had given “20 percent plus a very, very big X” as the mark that had to be achieved so that Söder could not get past the Greens when forming a coalition. In recent surveys, however, a three-way battle for the second strongest force emerged, between the Free Voters, the Greens and the AfD. The survey picture varies, sometimes the FW are clearly ahead, recently in the ZDF political barometer it was the Greens again by one percentage point.
However, its core topic of energy transition did not really bear fruit. The Greens had actually planned that October 8th could be a kind of “referendum on energy policy in Bavaria”. But now, in the last few meters, they have something similar in mind: making the election a vote on decency in politics and democratic behavior. They had already tried that after Aiwanger’s inflammatory Erdinger demo speech (“Bring back democracy”). This Sunday, decency and democracy appear in virtually every speech, even the shortest. At the information stands, you can hear that the wind is changing in the final spurt: more and more people are coming to express their fear for democracy.
It has never been so important to “have an inner values compass,” says Katharina Schulze in her speech. “If the shift to the right and the climate crisis continue at this rate, things we hold dear will be at risk.” She wants to give Bavaria a “directional update” for a country that is struggling to find the best solutions instead of falling into populist agitation. “If you turn the rural population against the city dwellers, you won’t gain anything,” says Schulze. And not even if you don’t solve big problems, but “exaggerate” small questions like nutrition or Winnetou. Schulze doesn’t mention any names, but it’s clear in the room that she means Aiwanger. Söder “chained himself to the Free Voters” and thereby “clinged to old thinking”. The Greens still want to form a coalition with Söder’s CSU. Hartmann says he has the “expectation of the largest party in Bavaria” to find the strength to leave its bubble after the election and start government negotiations. “First the country, then the party, and we clearly expect that.”
The top candidates also refer to the election campaign, which was often accompanied by disruptions to Green campaign events: “No matter how much others whistle, throw stones, shower us with hate online – we won’t back down,” says Schulze. Hartmann explains that the Greens still campaigned outside their bubble and sought conversation: “When others tear down bridges, we build bridges.” The country urgently needs bridges between conservative and progressive, city and country, young and old. “I have always seen Bavaria as a Country understood, a country that has enormous strengths. You don’t divide what you love.” State parliament member Johannes Becher adds combatively: “If they tear down our posters, we’ll stick them back up.”
Party leader Nouripour and Foreign Minister Baerbock also came to offer encouragement. Baerbock, who will remain in Munich for a citizens’ consultation after the party conference, warns against “badmouthing this great country” and against increasing division. Bratwurst or green kernel patty, oat milk and alpine milk, that is being pushed by conservatives. When she looks into the supermarket, she asks herself: “Why this culture clash on the open stage when it’s actually completely normal in everyday life, in people’s lives?”
Regarding migration, the minister says: “All those who promise that you just have to do this, this and that and then everything will be fine again – what world do they live in?” But it is true that we shouldn’t make it so easy for ourselves that the municipalities have to manage it somehow. There is a need for “orderly structures for a common European asylum policy.” This is difficult, there is no perfect solution, which is why people are wrestling with the issue. Baerbock believes that your Greens should “not allow themselves to be fooled” by hatred and agitation. However, one’s own party must also “recognize that in some areas of this republic one is dependent on a car.”