A good ten days before the state elections in Bavaria, a three-way battle for the second strongest force is still emerging. In a survey published on Thursday evening on behalf of ARD, the CSU remained unchanged at 36 percent – followed by the Free Voters with 16, the Greens with 15 and the AfD with 14 percent. Compared to the previous survey, the FW loses one percentage point, the AfD gains one, and the Greens remain constant. The SPD remains at nine percent on the Sunday question. The FDP would miss entry into the state parliament with four percent, but gained one point and at least shows an upward trend again. The representative study by the infratest dimap institute surveyed eligible voters in Bavaria until Wednesday of this week.
The coalition of CSU and FW under Prime Minister Markus Söder would still have a clear majority. In the survey, exactly 50 percent were satisfied or very satisfied with the work of the state government. 51 percent also consider this alliance to be good or very good. 32 percent of those surveyed favor a CSU sole government, 24 percent can best imagine a black-green coalition. Söder had ruled out this option. The survey does not provide any information on other variants that are mathematically impossible or only just possible – CSU with SPD or FDP.
A three-way battle for the second strongest force had already emerged weeks before the leaflet affair surrounding Hubert Aiwanger. In a representative survey by the Forsa Institute for the Southgerman newspaper At the beginning of August, the Greens and the Free Voters were tied, with both parties at 14 percent. The AfD followed right behind with 13 percent. Since then, the FW has been valued at up to 17 percent in surveys, which has often been explained as an effect of solidarity with Aiwanger, who stages research into his past as an alleged “smear campaign”. Söder himself spoke of “fever curves of solidarity” that could subside again by election day. The parliamentary manager of the Free Voters, Fabian Mehring, had put forward the theory that the diagnosed fever curve appeared to be “chronic”. Mehring even saw his party “on the way to becoming the second people’s party in Bavaria” with 17 percent of the polls.
If the Free Voters actually become the second strongest force on October 8th, after another government is formed with the CSU, the exciting question of the third strongest force – i.e. the opposition leader – also arises. In the current electoral period these are the Greens. This is relevant, for example, for speaking rights in parliament or access to committee chairs. The opposition leader is also allowed to counter government statements by state ministers or the Prime Minister, such as those often made by Markus Söder during the Corona pandemic.