Until recently, 15 percent in the election surveys, plus the experience of having always performed one or two percentage points better in the recent state elections than previously forecast, and above all the firm commitment from CSU leader Markus Söder to continue the black-orange coalition: The Free voters went into the state elections on Sunday very relaxed. So relaxed that party leader, Economics Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger was already looking ahead to the 2025 federal election at the end of the Free Voters’ election campaign. Aiwanger announced that it was “urgently necessary” for his party to enter the Bundestag. The Free Voters no longer wanted to watch as Germany was de-industrialized, farms were redeveloped and hospitals were closed.
When ARD’s projections from Infratest Dimap announced 15.3 percent for the Free Voters over the course of Sunday evening, there was enormous joy in the state parliament in Munich. The entire leadership of the party gathered there, especially the state parliamentary group leader Florian Streibl and the two ministers Thorsten Glauber (environment) and Michael Piazolo (culture). The 15.3 percent is not just a little more than predicted in the surveys. But a whopping increase of 3.7 percentage points compared to the 2018 state election, when the Free Voters won 11.6 percent and 27 seats in parliament. If it stays that way, they will have 34 MPs in the future. Aiwanger is quick to talk about a great result. “Starting from a very good result, we have made further gains,” he says in the BR. “To a certain extent, we also prevented more voters from moving to the right.”
Aiwanger, 52 and a qualified farmer from Rottenburg an der Laaber in Lower Bavaria, cast his vote at midday in his home town of Inkofen. There he said: “We are the source of ideas and setting the tone in this coalition. I am convinced that the voters will reward that.” At the same time, he makes it clear that he wants to remain economics minister. The Free Voters leader is also hoping for a fourth ministry for his party. “Of course we would like that, now let’s see whether the numbers support that,” he says on ZDF. He came to the state parliament early in the afternoon, but stayed in the background with staff until 6 p.m. Now he’s letting his feelings out. “That’s a significant increase,” says Aiwanger, who has been heavily controversial in recent weeks because of an anti-Semitic inflammatory leaflet from his school days.
There is also great joy among Aiwanger’s followers. “We can be very satisfied,” says Education Minister Piazolo. “This is the best election result we have ever had.” And parliamentary group leader Fabian Mehring explains: “Our strong result shows that the CSU was unable to rule past us right from the start.” Party leader Streibl also speaks of “a very good performance”. The Free Voters have had a “unique path to success” over the last 15 years. “First the jump into the state parliament, then ten years of hard opposition work and successful participation in the government for the last five years,” he says, “and now our best election result so far.” Just a year ago, “none of us would have expected such an outstanding performance.” At the same time, Streibl thanks the “whole team – from the base, through the parliamentary group and the cabinet members to our party leader Aiwanger, who worked for this success like no other.” Environment Minister Glauber also thanks the grassroots for the “extremely successful election campaign” and is really looking forward to the new legislature “with the faction once again strengthened”.
There are observers who attribute the success primarily to the affair surrounding the anti-Semitic inflammatory leaflet from Aiwanger’s school days 35 years ago Southgerman newspaper made public at the end of August. You can hear it more often these days that it ultimately benefited the party more than it harmed it. The affair triggered a wave of solidarity with the deputy prime minister among the population. This could be seen in the election polls soon after the pamphlet was published. From the perspective of leading FW people, this is at best half the truth. Culture Minister Piazolo and parliamentary group leader Streibl point to surveys with up to 14 percent for the party as early as July – well before the leaflet affair. In her opinion, success is primarily the reward for the successful work of the parliamentary group and the cabinet members. “You did a decent job, from the first to the last day of the legislative period,” something like that was said again and again that evening in the hall where the Free Voters were celebrating.
So it doesn’t hurt anyone that the party is likely to become only the third strongest force in the state parliament, behind the AfD, which came second after a neck-and-neck race with the Greens. “That’s not a problem at all,” says Streibl, “especially since we’ve broken the 15 percent mark.” However, the party leadership is suffering from the strong increase in votes for the AfD. “In the last five years, the AfD parliamentary group has not submitted a single useful political proposal to the state parliament. The only thing that made it stand out is that it completely fell out and only polemicized against the other parties,” says Streibl. “That’s why their success is so bitter.”