The coalition of CSU and Free Voters will most likely continue to govern Bavaria in the coming legislative period. But the balance of power in the state parliament is shifting. According to initial forecasts, the AfD has gained the most compared to the 2018 election, and the Free Voters are also gaining. The CSU loses again compared to 2018. The SPD achieved its historically worst result in a western German state. The Greens also lose. The FDP does not make it into the state parliament.
The war in Ukraine, the leaflet affair, the hard-fought election campaign – all of these could have been reasons why voters voted for a different party this time. Based on voter surveys, the research group elections survey institute broke down the results by age, gender, profession and level of education and thus determined which parties were able to score points with which social groups.
Younger people are more likely to vote for opposition parties
As in the 2018 election, the CSU is the strongest party in all age groups. However, the results between younger and older people differ significantly. According to survey results, Markus Söder’s party gets almost half of all votes among people over 60. The CSU and Free Voters together make up more than 60 percent.
The AfD achieved by far its worst result among older people. As in the 2018 state election, she received the highest percentage of votes from middle-aged people. The AfD also does well among those under 30 in Bavaria.
The CSU and Free Voters are less popular among younger people – here the two governing parties from the last legislative period together only have 36 percent. The Greens are in second place in this age group and get almost as many votes as the CSU. The FDP is also comparatively popular among those under 30. If they had had their way, the Liberals would have narrowly made it into the state parliament.
Voters with higher levels of education are less conservative
The higher the educational qualification, the less conservative: This applies to the results of the Bavarian state elections. In the group of university graduates, the Greens are almost the strongest force with 31 percent. The SPD and FDP also achieved their strongest results with eleven and six percent respectively.
It’s completely different in the group of people with a secondary school diploma: the CSU and Free Voters achieved their strongest results here at 43 and 19 percent respectively. The Greens, on the other hand, wouldn’t even get into the state parliament with four percent. With 21 percent, the AfD is the second strongest force behind the CSU among both voters with a secondary school diploma and those with a secondary school leaving certificate. The traffic light parties are significantly less popular in these groups.
People with a high school diploma are in the middle: at 21 percent, the Greens are well behind the CSU, which has 31 percent. Free voters and AfD are almost on a par here. The SPD has the lowest fluctuations across all educational backgrounds, but, like the Greens, is the most popular among academics.
The AfD is popular among men
The differences between men and women are significantly smaller than those between the different age and education groups. They are greatest in the AfD: 18 percent of men surveyed voted for the party, while only 13 percent of women voted. The AfD comes in second place among men and only fourth among women. Women were slightly more likely to vote for the CSU, the Greens or the SPD.
One in four workers voted for the AfD
Bavaria’s workers voted more conservatively than any other professional group. The AfD achieved by far its best result here with 25 percent. The CSU and Free Voters are also strongly represented at 36 and 17 percent. Right-of-center parties have almost 80 percent. The traffic light parties, however, hardly play a role in this group. The Greens and SPD each have seven percent, while the FDP only gets two percent of the vote in this group.
The SPD and the Greens perform better among employees and civil servants. In the group of civil servants, they even achieved their best result at twelve and 22 percent. The CSU is also strongly represented among civil servants at 38 percent. The AfD scores less with these groups and only gets nine percent of the vote.
It is significantly more popular among the self-employed at 15 percent and the Free Voters also come in at 16 percent. The FDP does not exceed five percent in any of the groups and the SPD seems to have to say goodbye to its core brand as a workers’ party in Bavaria.