On the anniversary of the second Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is no shortage of expressions of solidarity, practical and symbolic support, diplomatic appeals and papers promising an end to the war if … – yes, if what?
In Kiev itself, President Volodymyr Zelensky declared 2023 the year of victory, while Moscow announced the killing of another 240 Ukrainian soldiers. Drones, ammunition and missiles and new sanctions against Russia were promised in Washington, while the European Union failed to pass its tenth package of sanctions. A remarkable 141 countries of the world demanded the withdrawal of Russia by UN resolution.
Alone: This is not the logic of the battlefield, where neither attacker nor defender sees the moment for a truce. On the occasion of the anniversary, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally made it clear that his war goal – the destruction of Ukraine – remains unchanged. His predecessor, interim president Dmitry Medvedev, even threatened the collapse of his own country in the event of Russia’s defeat.
Beyond these broader considerations, the actual strategists in this war are sticking to predictable events when considering the months ahead on the front lines. From numerous talks with government representatives, military planners and secret service representatives, especially during and after the Munich Security Conference, the picture emerges of a western alliance of supporters that is preparing for the spring in concrete strategy scenarios and cannot currently see any political end to the war.
The foreign secret services are extremely important for Ukraine
The military and secret service reconnaissance officers, above all from the USA, but also from the other Ukraine allies, are of central importance in the conduct of the war. What caused a surprise at the beginning of the war a year ago is now part of day-to-day business: the USA publishes information previously classified as secret about manpower, troop movements and Russian attack tactics – and thus takes the momentum out of the attack.
CIA boss William Burns even went so far in Munich that he shared the strategy of unmasking a broad public on a podium – “to rob Putin of his ability to run a false narrative”. From the first attack plans to the alleged arms deliveries from China: Wherever suspicion grows, publicity immediately arises. Ammunition from North Korea, drone trainers from Iran, a new wave of attacks from Belarus, daily frontline movement with detailed attack planning – nothing remains hidden, and any information immediately generates resistance and readiness to support.
This is also the case when dealing with the feared spring offensive by Russia, which Ukraine wants to forestall with a counter-offensive from the current front line on the Dnieper through Zaporizhia Oblast to the Black Sea coast. Details were the New York Times available in January. The aim of the public announcement: mobilizing international aid, especially with armored vehicles and heavy artillery, and tying down Russian forces.
Western military planners have identified three phases in this war so far: the artillery battles last summer, then the anti-aircraft warfare, now the trench warfare. The military strategists in the West had foreseen and planned all phases. Ukraine is now gearing up for what may be the decisive, because last, spring offensive. After that, the country could run out of strength — and the West could run out of support. In the fall, the United States will sink into the primary election campaign, and it is questionable whether funds can still be mobilized in Congress.
More importantly, another offensive success by Ukraine could push the frontline back to where the war started – to the line of February 23, 2022. Great hopes are attached to this magical date. In Ukraine, the reconquest up to this line could be sold as a success – and the war could also be frozen under pressure from the West. Even Ukrainian politicians see little prospect of success in major liberation plans for the Donbass or Crimea.
Only one unknown remains: Russia’s reaction and Vladimir Putin’s steadfastness. The secret services, that much is certain, will let it be known if Moscow falters.