GThe inner courtyard of the Warsaw Royal Castle is filled with people. It is already dark on this Saturday evening, an American and a Polish flag are blowing in the wind. “Have no fear!” Joe Biden quotes a Polish national hero, Pope John Paul II, at the beginning and end of his speech. The Catholic Biden recalls the time when the power of faith, religion, the people of the Soviet Union faced the Iron Curtain. He swears by the Polish trade union Solidarność, reminiscent of Lech Walesa.
But at the end of his two-day visit to Poland, Biden also turns to the Ukrainians, saying: “We stand by your side!” He recalls how the Soviet Union once tried to nip freedom movements in the bud, in Hungary and Poland in 1956, in Czechoslovakia 1968
Biden says Putin has the audacity of an autocrat. Just before the start of his speech, Russia fired rockets at Lviv, near the border with Poland, thereby giving the lie to the alleged new strategy of focusing on eastern Ukraine. The rockets on Lviv should be understood as a message from Valdimir Putin to Biden. In Warsaw, he praised the West’s “prompt, strong, united, unprecedented” response to the war.
So far, Russia has been the eleventh strongest global economic power, says Biden. But soon it will no longer be among the top 20. With the war, Russia has already “strategically failed”. Around 200,000 Russians who have fled mean a real brain drain. His message to the Russian people (“if you can listen”) is: You are not our enemy!” This war is “not worthy of you”.
Biden speaks of a “battle between democracy and autocracy”, but despite all his optimism he is cautiously managing expectations. He prepares the West for a long struggle: “This battle will not be fought in days or in months. We have to steel ourselves for a long fight.”
Biden sums up the actual message of his speech in just one sentence, shortly before he leaves the podium to then start his return journey to the USA. “For God’s sake,” shouts Biden, referring to Putin, “this man can’t stay in power any longer.”
Biden is indirectly calling for Putin’s fall, that’s how you read it. But what does this sentence, which sounds like the often failed US strategy of regime change, mean? Do those words have consequences for US politics? Since the USA does not want to go to war against Russia, the sentence is more likely to have an appellative character, i.e. addressing the Moscow power elite.
Immediately after Biden’s speech, the White House felt compelled to explain the President’s words: The President’s message was “that Putin must not be allowed to have power over his neighbors or the region. He didn’t talk about Putin’s power in Russia or a government overthrow,” a White House official said. So confusion about Biden’s words in an extremely tense world political situation.
“Don’t even think about taking action against an inch of NATO territory”
But Biden also addressed Putin directly in his speech: “Don’t even think about taking action against a centimeter of NATO territory.” The USA and its NATO partners have a “sacred obligation”, namely that of mutual assistance. In Poland, these words from Biden’s mouth weigh more than anything else, such as assurances from Germany or France: “Article 5 is a sacred duty for the USA,” Biden had said hours earlier in the columned hall of the presidential palace.
From the Polish point of view, the US promise of assistance, that an attack on a NATO member would be understood as an attack on the entire alliance, cannot be repeated often enough. The country is concerned about the Russian war against its eastern neighbor Ukraine.
Many Poles have long felt the effects of the war: more than two million Ukrainians reached Poland in the first month of the war. Three million have left the country so far. The top priority of the Polish government, like that of the USA and NATO, is to ensure that hostilities do not spread to Polish territory. There is a fear of a Russian shelling of a weapons transport or even that Russia could deliberately attack Poland. Threats from Moscow specifically against Poland have recently increased.
Warsaw’s engagement is considered a disruptive factor by Russia: Poland takes in by far the most Ukrainian refugees, has become one of the most important arms suppliers for Kyiv and a hub for arms deliveries from other countries. As early as January, Poland began supplying military equipment to Ukraine. Poland’s military aid to Ukraine, however, goes back even further: since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, Warsaw has expanded its cooperation with Ukraine, including military training.
Poland is a major contributor to tough sanctions against Russia. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is said to have even lined up Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban. And the Polish government continues to demand even tougher measures, including an EU-wide freeze on oil and gas purchases. Warsaw is also demanding EU membership for Ukraine.
A remarkable rise that Poland has made in the western alliance
Polish officials regularly advance with ideas such as a “peacekeeping mission” in Ukraine or the proposal to deliver Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. Some partners in the EU and NATO are irritated by Poland’s brash appearance.
“Poland has taken on a great responsibility,” said Biden in Warsaw. It’s a remarkable climb that Poland has made in the western alliance. For a long time, since 2015, the country has been criticized for restricting media freedom, discrimination against sexual minorities and, last but not least, for the Polish government’s dismantling of the judiciary.
The initially difficult relationship between Poles and the Biden government was due to the fact that Poland’s national conservatives had close ties to Donald Trump. During the 2020 US presidential campaign, this led Biden to compare developments in Poland with Belarus, where dictator Alexander Lukashenko is oppressing his people. Warsaw was outraged.
Such distortions between the partners USA and Poland are unthinkable today. In terms of security policy, Poland plays too important a role: the country is now a front-line state.