Almost a fifth of Ukraine is occupied by Russia. The government and army are under pressure to start the reconquest. Now there is speculation that this could start in the Zaporizhia region.
Ukrainian soldiers training in the Donetsk region of the Donbas. Among other things, they prepared themselves for a possible Russian attack with chemical weapons, says one of them. “Since the Russian invasion, there has also been a constant threat of chemical weapon attacks. That’s why we practice recognizing toxic substances and high levels of radiation. Since we have good modern equipment, it’s also much better than before.”
Almost a fifth of Ukraine is currently occupied by the Russians and the long-awaited military reconquest has not yet begun. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that a counter-offensive could not begin without further arms deliveries from the allies.
conflicting parties as a source
Information on the course of the war, shelling and casualties provided by official bodies of the Russian and Ukrainian conflict parties cannot be directly checked by an independent body in the current situation.
Apparently there are too few tanks ready
Ukraine fights with both old Soviet and Western weapons. But there is a lack of artillery ammunition and heavy weapons: According to the “Neue Züricher Zeitung”, by the end of April far fewer modern western tanks had arrived than promised. Of the more than 130 expected “M2 Abrams”, “Challenger” and “Leopard 2” tanks, only around 70 were delivered.
Of course, it is not known where and how Ukraine could start an offensive. There is speculation about a push in the south to divide the Russian-occupied areas and to block the Russian land connection to occupied Crimea.
Intelligence chief: Russian Army capable of defense
As Kiev military observer Oleh Zhdanov analyzed it on Ukrainian television: “We are no longer storming positions like we did in World War II. Fortunately, our partners are helping us with modern warfare – including offensive maneuvers. As for our troops’ tactics in a counter-offensive, it will be great many surprises, especially for the Russian military command.”
Moscow is currently not in a position to launch a serious offensive in Ukraine, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov told YahooNews. Russia has “no military, economic or political potential and hardly any missiles.”
However, the Russian army is quite capable of defense and this is a serious problem for the counter-offensive.
Dark green: Russian army advancing. Hatched: areas annexed by Russia.
Russia is taking residents away
An offensive in the south could come from the Ukrainian-controlled Zaporizhia region. The Russian occupiers of the region announced that they were moving entire communities out of the region.
“As always when things get difficult for the racists, they pretend to take care of the people. We are now seeing this again on the left bank in the Kherson region,” said spokeswoman for Ukraine’s Southern Armed Forces Natalya Humenyuk. on Ukrainian television. Russians in Ukraine are called racists. It is a combination of the words “Russia” and “Fascism”. “They pretend to care, but in reality they are taking people to Russian defense lines,” Humenyuk said. “The Russians are also trying to move positions and troops so that they can hide behind the residents.”
In the south is also the Russian-occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, warned again at the weekend that nuclear safety is not guaranteed. The Ukrainian employees there are increasingly under stress. They live right next to the nuclear facility in the city of Enerhodar.
“Actively promoted an evacuation”
The elected mayor, Dmytro Orlov, had to flee to the regional capital, Zaporizhia, but keeps in close contact with the people of Enerhodar. “About a week ago, equipment and documentation were removed from the administration and a place was created where you can get enemy passports,” Orlov described the situation in a phone call with the ARD. “Over the weekend there was active promotion for an evacuation, currently still voluntarily to the coast of the Azov Sea or to the territory of occupied Crimea or to Russia.” Various people were taken away.
While Ukrainian soldiers continue to train for their dangerous mission against the Russian invaders, the Ukrainian political and military leadership is under pressure to succeed. Defense Minister Oleksii Resnikov put it this way in the Washington Post: “Many people have high expectations that could be disappointed.”