SPD Saxony: Out of luck, comrade? Petra Köpping and the survey shock

SPD in the East
Out of luck, comrade? Petra Köpping and the survey shock in Saxony

Looking at the surveys is not particularly encouraging for the SPD. Things look particularly sad in Saxony, where a new state parliament will be elected this year. What’s going on there?

Petra Köpping could make history: As SPD top candidate who leads her party in Saxony below the five percent hurdle. And thus from the state parliament. This scenario would be a novelty for the SPD, a bitter blow anyway – just one year before the federal elections. But if you believe the polls, it is entirely conceivable.

According to a recent Civey survey for the “Saxon newspaper” The AfD is now at 37 percent (2019 state election: 27.5 percent), the ruling CDU under Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer would have 33 percent (32.5 percent) and the co-ruling SPD would have a meager 3 percent (7.7 percent).

So far these are just surveys, a snapshot without consequence. But a look into the crystal ball shows: the SPD faces turbulent months ahead.

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The super election year of 2024 as a whole threatens to become a major defeat for the social democrats. A new state parliament will be elected in Saxony on September 1st, as well as in Thuringia. Three weeks later it’s Brandenburg’s turn. According to current surveys, the AfD could make significant gains in the European elections on June 9th – and the SPD could make significant losses in some cases. Like in Saxony, for example.

Köpping, 65, who has been in the SPD for 21 years, was supposed to bring about a turnaround. Because of her (crisis) experience and Eastern biography, the top candidate is considered the wild card of the small state association, which had to cope with the worst result in its history in the last state election in 2019.

Köpping was already mayor in the GDR, integration minister during the 2015/16 refugee crisis, and later social and health minister in the Corona years. As a result, it set a self-declared goal of achieving “at least double-digit” results in September. That sounds modest, but given the weakness of the SPD in Saxony, it is quite ambitious. Maybe even overambitious?

Köpping blames the traffic light coalition

In any case, the SPD top candidate sees the reason for the miserable survey results not in herself, but in the federal traffic light coalition. “The survey results cannot be justified in terms of state politics,” said Köpping “Tagesspiegel”. “But they reflect the mood here in Saxony towards the traffic lights.” Given this mood, national political issues would take a back seat. The federal government has “disappointed the expectations of many people – especially here in the East,” said the Social Affairs Minister. “Many have the feeling that they are not being considered when it comes to the many changes.”

In fact, in the aforementioned Civey survey, all traffic light parties do not present a good picture, and the Greens and FDP also recorded losses. Accordingly, the Liberals would once again miss out on entering the state parliament, which they have not been a member of since 2014. The unpopularity of the traffic light among voters, which is evident in federal politics, seems to be confirmed in Saxony.

However, the numbers should not be overestimated. Manfred Güllner, head of the opinion research institute Forsa, does not believe that the SPD in Saxony will completely disappear into obscurity. He said he thinks 7 to 8 percent is realistic “Berlin newspaper”. Other survey institutes also see the comrades as being a few percentage points above the five percent hurdle. Nevertheless: “Of course that’s not exactly a great result,” said Güllner.

He also doubts that the AfD will move into the East German state chancellery. However, Demoskop warns: “The democratic parties must now come together and take joint action against the AfD.” The front must stand firm, which can be used to mobilize non-voters in particular and thus prevent the AfD from being successful. According to Güllner’s figures, the AfD could get 30 percent or more, but not an absolute majority.

Provided a target for competition

SPD Ms. Köpping could become a victim of adverse circumstances that go beyond the traditionally difficult situation for her party in Saxony. On the one hand, there is the AfD, which specifically fuels and collects protests against the traffic light policy. And there is the Saxon CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, who also complains verbosely about the work of the federal government.

The campaigns against the traffic light coalition are particularly strong in Saxony, Köpping told the “Berliner Zeitung”. The mood is being fueled by populism and fake news, and not just by the AfD. You can see the result now. The Saxon CDU is working on the traffic lights, but is not presenting any solutions – this is weakening people’s trust in politics as a whole. “And who benefits from that? In the end it only benefits one party, the AfD,” said Köpping.

This is campaign rhetoric, of course. Especially since Köpping recently had one funding affair in her ministry, which offered the competition plenty of attack surface. But their all-round approach also shows that the SPD’s nervousness in Saxony is growing – even when you look into the crystal ball.