SPD, Greens and FDP: Noiselessly in the direction of traffic lights?

More “similarities”, fewer “differences” and “cautious optimism”. More was not to be gotten from the negotiators of the SPD, Greens and FDP today. On Friday they want to take stock.

There are very few certainties in the exploratory talks these days. One of them is that supply and demand are very unevenly distributed in the information market. It remains that way after day two of the “in-depth” explorations: many questions, little insight into the contents of the negotiations, the timetable becomes a little more concrete. What impression do the exploratory parties leave? “Optimistic behavior” is a phrase that is often used in such situations.

Hub27 – that’s the name of the location. It is a manageable, attractive concrete block on the Berlin exhibition grounds. At least there is enough space in the parking lot across the street for the many company cars. The media buoyancy is great, the amount of useful information is small. Occasionally, press officers come down to the ground floor, where the cameras are already lined up in front of a wall painted neutrally. A dilemma, they know about the media’s hunger for news, but at the same time strict confidentiality has been agreed. What remains are the sparse scraps of words that fall off when you walk in. When asked about the mood in the morning, Christian Lindner said: “Difficult”. You don’t get any smarter than that.

“Europe, migration and flight and something else”

A few hours later: Olaf Scholz is on his way to the USA. Finance Minister Affairs. He says nothing. The words of the parliamentary director of the FDP, Marco Buschmann, are apt: “We keep radio discipline”. Winfried Kretschmann, the Green Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg, is asked what topics have now been dealt with. “Europe, migration and flight and something else.” And what was “another what”? He wasn’t there. On this day it will remain the most concrete statement about the content of the conversation.

Finally, the three gentlemen who are officially charged with speaking appear in front of the microphones: the general secretaries of the SPD and FDP as well as the federal manager of the Greens. SPD man Lars Klingbeil speaks of a long way to go. One or the other hurdle. The tasks are not small. But he believes “that can be a good thing”. Green Michael Kellner says: “The number of things we have in common has increased.” The number of differences has decreased. This suggests that there are still differences.

The three should work out a basis for discussion by Friday. The previous discussions must be put on a joint paper. According to Volker Wissing of the FDP, the written elaboration is the “moment of truth” and seems a bit more cautious.

No breakthrough to report

Today gives clues as to how things can continue on the way to a possible traffic light coalition. There is still no breakthrough to report. But that wasn’t to be expected either. A final evaluation from the outside is difficult as long as what is being discussed in the negotiation room remains behind the wall of silence. How intensely are controversial issues such as tax increases discussed? Are red lines drawn behind closed doors?

However, it is at least noticeable that the three negotiating parties have set Friday as a clear time target. That could have been phrased more gently in front of the cameras. Now the expectation is set. Will it be possible to put the common basis on paper this week? Should the document then also convince the negotiators, it would be the turn of the party committees. They could clear the way for coalition talks to begin soon.

Any reliable prognosis comes too early

A small party congress would have to be called for the Greens. But there is much to suggest that the party will be able to organize this at the weekend. Klingbeil, Wissing, Kellner and their teams now have to do a lot of text work. The three parties spoke to each other for a good 14 hours on Monday and Tuesday alone. Minutes were allowed to take notes in the negotiation room. This has to be summarized in a manageable document. This should not be an anticipated coalition agreement, but it still has to be a sufficiently stable basis for further talks.

Any reliable prognosis as to whether it will ultimately be possible to assemble the traffic light comes too early. Only this much: The probability that the SPD, Greens and FDP will form the next federal government remains significantly higher than that of all other combinations.